Us Politics · resolved market
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4db2e8ac022354e0cfec7b726800bc06172c44e47b4b6a941dab993f8e7fdf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 27c | 11,533$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.13 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 68c | 5,235$3,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.7 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 30c | 4,824$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.32 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 3,777$2,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.57 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 29c | 3,398$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.9 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 3,185$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.74 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 66c | 2,580$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 2,042$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.57 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 34c | 1,930$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.26 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 35c | 1,732$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.52 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 1,584$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.04 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 29c | 1,381$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.77 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 23c | 1,289$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.49 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…67c4backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 35c | 1,071$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.98 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,011$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 69c | 947$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.52 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 808.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 68c | 783$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 18c | 779.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 65c | 762.33$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.04 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x915c…ca07backed No | 71c | 701.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 30c | 700$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 38c | 668$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.26 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 36c | 665$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.14 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 647.82$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.33 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…3896backed No | 68c | 600.55$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 63c | 588$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +167%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 27c | 500.09$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 64c | 405$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +486.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb24…ac2cbacked No | 76c | 342.96$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 22c | 336.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 301.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 38c | 296$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 279.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 32c | 268.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 19c | 245.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 66c | 241$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked No | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 67c | 222.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 33c | 212$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…204abacked Yes | 16c | 184.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…3d71backed No | 63c | 182.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…6918backed No | 71c | 175$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…1f82backed No | 72c | 159.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…bc64backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…cd5cbacked No | 71c | 128.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +595.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 109.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed Yes | 33c | 101.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 30c | 100.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 36c | 93.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaf…0172backed No | 63c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 39c | 89.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 26c | 77.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 30c | 73.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…8ff0backed Yes | 33c | 62.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…9428backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked No | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 68c | 50.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…d9dabacked No | 66c | 48.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed No | 67c | 44.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccd1…c343backed Yes | 31c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…b39abacked No | 69c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd828…8e53backed No | 68c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.