AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45a09a7aac7f8db2abda937b95986f5e81f936df55f7c593d526cbc31cac6abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 5c | 8,400$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 56c | 6,623$3,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,896.7 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 35c | 2,942$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.57 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,536$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.09 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…713cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,476$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,509.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 8c | 954.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 16cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 13c | 896.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed Yes | 80c | 704.45$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 650.66$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 642.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.55 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked Yes | 63c | 564.9$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 35c | 500$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 65c | 496.09$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Yes | 7c | 458.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 18c | 425.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked No | 15c | 417.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…598ebacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 10c | 382.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.48 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…c8e2backed Yes | 53c | 299.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 7c | 286.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 61c | 258.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa86…2e0dbacked No | 19c | 202.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…ed95backed Yes | 62c | 160.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 64c | 155.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…4bacbacked Yes | 64c | 155.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…6976backed Yes | 67c | 149.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…05d0backed Yes | 7c | 136.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 8c | 131.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed No | 24c | 121.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed Yes | 80c | 120.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed No | 25c | 120.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 17c | 116.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked Yes | 74c | 111.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 21c | 107.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 50c | 102.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed No | 47c | 99.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…0a93backed Yes | 62c | 87.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 84.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…4004backed Yes | 80c | 82.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…f818backed No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…2042backed Yes | 64c | 77.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…41bdbacked Yes | 80c | 74.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe355…7625backed Yes | 80c | 56.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 59c | 56.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab4…d172backed Yes | 80c | 55.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…a14cbacked Yes | 80c | 50.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…4f60backed No | 77c | 49.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 78c | 42.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 39.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Yes | 54c | 39.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 79c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed No | 47c | 36.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f03…2d76backed Yes | 59c | 34.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…e99abacked Yes | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x659b…e764backed Yes | 60c | 30.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 74c | 28.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…a9b1backed Yes | 64c | 26.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…1cd5backed No | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb34…5731backed Yes | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked Yes | 64c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…fa59backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…aafebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…c390backed Yes | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…e8cdbacked Yes | 64c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?this page
- Will CapCut - Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.