AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b37703b6ee8e6faff9c64ce6b9df5300e1918648e2b0bdcf3d999c8036f6ca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 27c | 7,978$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,787.51 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 58c | 3,263$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 66c | 2,974$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.1 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 15c | 2,646$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,258.56 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 28c | 2,526$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 21c | 2,500$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.78 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,606$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…b402backed Yes | 51c | 1,400$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 56c | 1,200$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.52 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 78c | 1,192$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3a…c2c0backed No | 36c | 1,121$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…057cbacked No | 44c | 1,011$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 14c | 999.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.97 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 17c | 981.83$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.35 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1493…5fb5backed No | 75c | 978.52$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 33c | 909.57$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.97 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7d…348cbacked Yes | 35c | 832.64$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 52c | 818.25$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.6 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 17c | 773.22$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x609e…a64fbacked Yes | 19c | 701.02$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked No | 70c | 695$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 67c | 694.26$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.47 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…7c77backed Yes | 69c | 682.29$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 65c | 670.66$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.66 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Yes | 75c | 662.18$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 22c | 635.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 42c | 589.35$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.29 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed Yes | 79c | 562.09$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed No | 11c | 545$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 44c | 501.41$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…a7c8backed Yes | 78c | 430.5$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 26c | 422.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.56 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 63c | 398$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed No | 15c | 391.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 16cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 380.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 10c | 374.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.72 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 365.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 351.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.97 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3136…5b6bbacked Yes | 40c | 338.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…6e99backed No | 75c | 310$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…c8e2backed Yes | 26c | 303$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.23 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 14c | 292.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 74c | 271.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…f818backed Yes | 44c | 255$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed No | 51c | 251.64$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 20c | 249.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 53c | 247.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 216.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…571abacked No | 52c | 215.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…ed95backed No | 63c | 204.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed Yes | 64c | 198.22$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 36c | 195.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.59 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 25c | 188.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 40c | 185.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 53c | 175.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…e278backed Yes | 78c | 156$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2896…0258backed Yes | 71c | 153.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes | 33c | 150.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…16f6backed Yes | 69c | 144.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…edc4backed No | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 25c | 140.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…dd6cbacked Yes | 65c | 138$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…5c1cbacked No | 71c | 134.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…fab0backed Yes | 75c | 132.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 130.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 52c | 128.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…2471backed No | 41c | 121.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 19c | 121.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed No | 35c | 119.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 15c | 119.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…c6a5backed Yes | 51c | 118.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 71c | 118.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 40c | 107.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 22c | 106.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed Yes | 39c | 103.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…52d8backed No | 68c | 103.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…e85ebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…1d08backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 43c | 94.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes | 77c | 93.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…2b0bbacked Yes | 65c | 93.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…6936backed Yes | 71c | 91.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…51e2backed Yes | 43c | 90.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 39c | 89.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 89.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked No | 25c | 88.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 50c | 85.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56f…9e25backed Yes | 78c | 79.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 15c | 78.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +170.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4285backed No | 34c | 78.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…d895backed Yes | 64c | 78.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a2…5643backed No | 66c | 75.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9880…82d6backed Yes | 34c | 75.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…8fe8backed Yes | 70c | 74.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 55c | 74.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…858abacked No | 54c | 74.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…efdabacked No | 56c | 73.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?this page
- Will CapCut - Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?Yes won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.