Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mike Johnson vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aca3772497e11ef9b0b096f59f26183b80d68460d157d4294fe2359825c9d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 10,428$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 1c | 7,717$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 5,930$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed No | 3c | 5,341$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.24per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 13c | 4,281$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.76 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 3,004$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 12c | 2,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 35c | 1,800$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.11 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 6c | 1,649$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 9c | 1,204$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Yes | 76c | 1,056$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 5c | 474.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked Yes | 64c | 405.04$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 18c | 347.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 18c | 300.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 74c | 250$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 77c | 216$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 196.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…85b8backed Yes | 18c | 145$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 15c | 132.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 128.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…f15dbacked Yes | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…1bd6backed No | 28c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…a7f8backed Yes | 75c | 97.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…bfc0backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…e22fbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 25cpaid | +272.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 58c | 32.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…e006backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Johnson vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?this page
- Will Dan Crenshaw vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Yes won
- Will Elise Stefanik vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Yes won
- Will James Comer vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Yes won
- Will Jim Jordan vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Yes won
- Will Steve Scalise vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Yes won
- Will Tom Emmer vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.