Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc40ed2387f66dcfbe1490f447fb13bd1c40943b22ebb3db8597d4e3f08522a

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Evertonof Manchester United, Everton
Resolved: Nov 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,321 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Everton	71c	12,571$8,873 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,697.48	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Manchester United	29c	9,372$2,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,737.91	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Everton	71c	2,359$1,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$683.04	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Everton	51c	1,382$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.14	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed Everton	73c	1,375$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.23	107	68.2%73 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Manchester United	30c	1,240$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.03	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Manchester United	30c	845$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.6	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Manchester United	45c	842.56$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.48	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x630c…1230backed Manchester United	28c	586$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.08	103	33%34 W · 69 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fef…5840backed Manchester United	52c	575.99$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-5.0wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Manchester United	28c	499.98$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.99	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Manchester United	28c	444$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.32	215	48.8%105 W · 110 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73e…021cbacked Manchester United	16c	380$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.4	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Manchester United	29c	377.86$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.8	82	42.7%35 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed Manchester United	30c	373.33$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Manchester United	30c	350.86$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.26	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95db…dc65backed Manchester United	30c	339.81$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.59	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked Manchester United	34c	296.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.8wins	-0.31per pick	42cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Manchester United	31c	272.08$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.06	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Manchester United	13c	257.49$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.97	515	42.5%219 W · 296 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Manchester United	30c	243$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.9	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1be0…dc27backed Everton	72c	239$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.92	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-5.9wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-35%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf3c1…3ac2backed Manchester United	30c	238.33$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Everton	71c	237.93$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	409	53.3%218 W · 191 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Manchester United	28c	214.17$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.97	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…8502backed Manchester United	29c	206.9$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Manchester United	44c	200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-3.1wins	-0.34per pick	45cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Manchester United	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d33…e208backed Manchester United	29c	172.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Manchester United	30c	166.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1166…a8e1backed Manchester United	32c	156.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	97	36.1%35 W · 62 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked Everton	70c	150$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	152	45.4%69 W · 83 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Manchester United	29c	140$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	191	28.8%55 W · 136 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Manchester United	29c	137.93$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	192	44.3%85 W · 107 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Manchester United	30c	133.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Everton	54c	121.59$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.11	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Manchester United	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x388e…ada0backed Manchester United	29c	113.79$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Manchester United	45c	107$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.39	202	39.6%80 W · 122 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a95…f2b9backed Manchester United	29c	103.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x536b…8134backed Manchester United	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Manchester United	29c	101.67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	161	36.6%59 W · 102 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Manchester United	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Manchester United	28c	90$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Everton	72c	90$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x851d…1f74backed Manchester United	30c	83.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd743…59bdbacked Manchester United	32c	78.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7afb…ff15backed Manchester United	29c	76.69$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.24	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2280…3df3backed Manchester United	29c	75.1$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Manchester United	47c	75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.25	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x145d…8a74backed Everton	70c	71.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Manchester United	28c	71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	541	28.3%153 W · 388 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x518b…cf8abacked Manchester United	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4522…ff26backed Manchester United	29c	68.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Everton	72c	59.14$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.58	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Manchester United	30c	54.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Manchester United	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d82…14ddbacked Manchester United	30c	44.03$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a0…f721backed Manchester United	29c	43.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…d70abacked Manchester United	29c	41.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5309…1975backed Manchester United	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Everton	71c	33.77$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.91	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcce0…5fcabacked Manchester United	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Everton	70c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Everton	68c	23.5$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.52	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)this page
Manchester United vs. Everton: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Manchester United vs. Everton: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event