Movies · resolved market
Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8547ee4c18595fa803923a621beb5628148fd6e9bc6180004a4162e3b6846d57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,480$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 75c | 1,844$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 31c | 1,397$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.12 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 9c | 1,162$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 35c | 822.56$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.79 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 15c | 537.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83e…848bbacked Yes | 12c | 459.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 77c | 400.91$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed No | 70c | 304.17$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 22c | 302.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 68c | 300$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked Yes | 4c | 287.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 14c | 270$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 14c | 269.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 29c | 158.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 7c | 156.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 16c | 130.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 126$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 124.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 19c | 110.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 11c | 101.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 91.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Yes | 57c | 88.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 43c | 58.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 38c | 26.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 52c | 22.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…7b89backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…393dbacked No | 62c | 16.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?this page
- Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 24m?Yes won
- Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 28m?No won
- Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 32m?No won
- Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 32m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.