NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aa53c6246c01ce7db6fa2b2dfcff3ef44e0c0f91fe79327374ae2bdfaf78b8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $467,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $474,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Magic | 52c | 413,462$215,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198,461.54 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed 76ers | 48c | 200,000$96,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,999.99 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed 76ers | 48c | 159,161$76,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,397.21 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed 76ers | 48c | 19,741$9,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,475.7 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed 76ers | 48c | 10,312$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed 76ers | 51c | 7,646$3,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.46 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers | 49c | 7,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Magic | 51c | 5,912$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.84 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 48c | 5,144$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.61 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed 76ers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Magic | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked 76ers | 48c | 4,504$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.85 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 50c | 3,348$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed 76ers | 54c | 3,046$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked 76ers | 51c | 3,000$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed 76ers | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers | 49c | 2,445$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed 76ers | 48c | 2,415$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.31 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Magic | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked 76ers | 50c | 1,905$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.89 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 76ers | 49c | 1,749$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.23 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f06…e795backed 76ers | 50c | 1,610$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Magic | 50c | 1,218$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.78 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed 76ers | 48c | 834.09$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.14 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Magic | 51c | 555$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 63c | 550$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers | 51c | 501$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.51 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed 76ers | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed 76ers | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked 76ers | 49c | 424.61$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked 76ers | 39c | 400$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked 76ers | 49c | 375$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed 76ers | 47c | 323.08$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed 76ers | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed 76ers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Magic | 50c | 199.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Magic | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed 76ers | 51c | 162.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed 76ers | 49c | 140.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Magic | 53c | 134.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…3ef6backed 76ers | 50c | 126.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked 76ers | 37c | 123.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed 76ers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed 76ers | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…a145backed 76ers | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed 76ers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked 76ers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed 76ers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Magic | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…ec71backed 76ers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Magic | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked 76ers | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8ddebacked 76ers | 52c | 60.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed 76ers | 49c | 60.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Magic | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 280 | 58.2%163 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed 76ers | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked 76ers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…1893backed 76ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…503fbacked 76ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…2a37backed 76ers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked 76ers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…6937backed 76ers | 48c | 30.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9365…1389backed 76ers | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)this page
- Magic vs. 76ersMagic won
- Magic vs. 76ers: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.