NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ae4794299ace9f57eef21682f0a05cccdd28861b336637c41084bb9e455c1b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $69,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $70,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,951 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under	49c	21,760$10,604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,603.9	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	51c	14,750$7,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,234.61	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under	52c	9,994$5,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,196.71	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7d…b54dbacked Over	48c	8,750$4,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,550	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Over	51c	7,282$3,702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,580.1	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	49c	3,430$1,681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,680.7	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	49c	3,333$1,633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,699.82	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Under	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.09	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-6.6wins	-0.25per pick	52cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Under	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	191	47.6%91 W · 100 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Under	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Over	48c	1,667$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$866.67	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Under	49c	1,482$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.18	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0772…fe89backed Over	50c	1,394$697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$697	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Under	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	53c	999.99$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	51c	844$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413.56	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	48c	820$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.6	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	47c	800$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Over	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	51c	799.99$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	750$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Under	49c	619.96$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.78	198	45.5%90 W · 108 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9f…ab58backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+3.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf2…b852backed Under	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ead…16d3backed Over	49c	530.61$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.61	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over	49c	513.47$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.39	162	54.3%88 W · 74 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Under	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under	51c	490.2$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c4…4689backed Under	50c	488.28$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.14	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Over	51c	450$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.5	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	51c	438.46$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.51	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf4…d167backed Under	52c	389.99$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.8	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed Under	53c	350$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.5	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-7.6wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	53c	339.13$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.39	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over	50c	337.35$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.45	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3b…b511backed Over	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Over	49c	244.9$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.9	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a3…1259backed Over	49c	220$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.2	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8244…11f4backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61e1…adf1backed Under	52c	190.38$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	75	48%36 W · 39 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…0f28backed Under	52c	170$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.4	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	48c	141$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.32	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Under	48c	110$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Under	49c	104.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Over	51c	102.22$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.09	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	152	47.4%72 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	48c	92$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.16	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	88.43$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.19	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Over	48c	83.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.99	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ce…5431backed Under	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	224	67.9%152 W · 72 L	+13.8wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf237…46edbacked Over	55c	63.93$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.93	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	60	50%30 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…edeabacked Under	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	44c	48.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.49	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4e…dc93backed Over	51c	42.47$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.81	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbba2…eaa6backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	122	45.9%56 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under	50c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x631e…a121backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over	49c	28.86$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.72	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	53c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.69	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over	47c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.78	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Under	49c	25.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	204	56.4%115 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6881…525dbacked Over	49c	23.61$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Under	50c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	448	44.2%198 W · 250 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x213c…618ebacked Under	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3713…ab6fbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd33…81d1backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event