NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d15f8d3d3ef2bc0c86eb706eb2f00eed749a428aeaed646768a9a072882577b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Magic | 52c | 20,754$10,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,920.84 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed 76ers | 44c | 7,921$3,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.24 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 54c | 7,670$4,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,528.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 76ers | 47c | 6,867$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,203.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Magic | 55c | 6,791$3,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Magic | 50c | 5,509$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.26 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed 76ers | 50c | 4,175$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.46 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…2ad2backed 76ers | 51c | 3,900$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5ca2backed Magic | 49c | 3,900$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…0706backed Magic | 49c | 3,900$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9120backed 76ers | 51c | 3,900$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…832ebacked Magic | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Magic | 60c | 2,433$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.33 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed 76ers | 46c | 2,100$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 76ers | 43c | 1,908$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 56c | 1,878$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked 76ers | 44c | 1,705$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb22…ce57backed 76ers | 50c | 1,320$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed 76ers | 43c | 1,311$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.96 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 49c | 914$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Magic | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked 76ers | 48c | 722.82$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.95 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Magic | 50c | 669$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers | 42c | 362.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Magic | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked 76ers | 46c | 333.69$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed 76ers | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 76ers | 43c | 198.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Magic | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…4505backed Magic | 59c | 169$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Magic | 57c | 158.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Magic | 54c | 131.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Magic | 57c | 111.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed 76ers | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed 76ers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed 76ers | 43c | 66.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Magic | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…b7adbacked 76ers | 43c | 42.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed 76ers | 46c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Magic | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Magic | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Magic | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed 76ers | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeadc…8533backed Magic | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Magic | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- Magic vs. 76ersMagic won
- Magic vs. 76ers: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.