TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
AFC Bournemouthof Manchester United FC, AFC Bournemouth
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,081 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7087…c61fbacked AFC Bournemouth58c8,000$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36010148.5%49 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Manchester United FC32c5,999$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.79560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff32…2496backed Manchester United FC33c5,455$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-73.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United FC43c4,542$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.146,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed AFC Bournemouth70c4,306$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.4210768.2%73 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Manchester United FC10c2,121$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.524,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Manchester United FC46c2,015$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.241947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed AFC Bournemouth67c2,001$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.2521853.2%116 W · 102 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed AFC Bournemouth48c1,113$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57913852.2%72 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a6…6d23backed Manchester United FC33c947.24$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.591741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x08be…5b1fbacked Manchester United FC32c939.69$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked AFC Bournemouth68c938.36$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.281,27250.4%641 W · 631 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Manchester United FC32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Manchester United FC5c811.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.669532.6%31 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed AFC Bournemouth67c763.02$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.815952.2%83 W · 76 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed AFC Bournemouth59c753.45$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.32,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed AFC Bournemouth70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.293148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed AFC Bournemouth70c669.99$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2045339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed AFC Bournemouth53c660.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.386838.2%26 W · 42 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Manchester United FC32c635.15$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.258632.6%28 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Manchester United FC33c576.16$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4958445.9%268 W · 316 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed AFC Bournemouth67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16539156%219 W · 172 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Manchester United FC33c456.31$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508237.8%31 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed AFC Bournemouth68c440$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Manchester United FC44c397.91$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3840150.1%201 W · 200 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed AFC Bournemouth53c354.72$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.721163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Manchester United FC32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019244.3%85 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…ed83backed Manchester United FC32c312.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.957035.7%25 W · 45 L-10.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb2a3…e321backed AFC Bournemouth68c311.68$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed AFC Bournemouth67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb79…85bebacked Manchester United FC22c270$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-54.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2efc…8259backed Manchester United FC31c252.16$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.171625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Manchester United FC32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8017955.3%99 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Manchester United FC31c249.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4918646.8%87 W · 99 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Manchester United FC26c246.55$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.022,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Manchester United FC24c208.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031849.1%156 W · 162 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1feb…bdc1backed Manchester United FC5c201.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.042218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Manchester United FC32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6419128.8%55 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed AFC Bournemouth69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628040%32 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…4e80backed Manchester United FC33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked AFC Bournemouth61c199.98$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3329158.4%170 W · 121 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Manchester United FC31c191.6$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.423435.9%84 W · 150 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Manchester United FC31c179$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4912159.5%72 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Manchester United FC31c178.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2936036.1%130 W · 230 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked AFC Bournemouth69c173$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.633650%18 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed AFC Bournemouth69c171$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.014751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa47f…dfb1backed Manchester United FC36c166.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605335.8%19 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+59.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked AFC Bournemouth69c164$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.844339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed AFC Bournemouth70c163.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.21,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ff…121cbacked Manchester United FC31c160$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65657.1%32 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Manchester United FC32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011839%46 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed AFC Bournemouth69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9316160.9%98 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked AFC Bournemouth68c134.66$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0910956%61 W · 48 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked AFC Bournemouth69c131$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.615050%25 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked AFC Bournemouth70c119$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.774156.8%421 W · 320 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8393…253cbacked Manchester United FC32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324850%24 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Manchester United FC31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315339.6%21 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ee…5e08backed Manchester United FC33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed AFC Bournemouth69c96$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.764341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed AFC Bournemouth69c91$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.213053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed Manchester United FC17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed AFC Bournemouth56c81.29$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5157744.4%256 W · 321 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed AFC Bournemouth69c76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.562060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7567…0923backed AFC Bournemouth68c74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.682744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed AFC Bournemouth69c74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.943850%19 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Manchester United FC30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.154128.3%153 W · 388 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6524…dbbbbacked Manchester United FC32c65.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.051414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Manchester United FC32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205334%18 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Manchester United FC32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Manchester United FC32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023220.7%48 W · 184 L-12.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed AFC Bournemouth72c61.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.326741.8%28 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Manchester United FC33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016236.4%59 W · 103 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0882…0565backed Manchester United FC33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433a…e3d9backed AFC Bournemouth69c57.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.996566.2%43 W · 22 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked AFC Bournemouth68c55.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8524566.1%162 W · 83 L+24.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacb2…fb9dbacked Manchester United FC36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1594backed AFC Bournemouth69c54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.742657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Manchester United FC31c54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.741457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…22c4backed AFC Bournemouth62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.838554.1%46 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed AFC Bournemouth67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.512060%72 W · 48 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89fc…0bdfbacked AFC Bournemouth67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked Manchester United FC31c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed AFC Bournemouth51c48.27$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6553134.5%183 W · 348 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc368…0b4ebacked AFC Bournemouth69c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.571464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Manchester United FC32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515949.7%79 W · 80 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Manchester United FC33c46.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaebc…bb17backed Manchester United FC31c46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed AFC Bournemouth68c45.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2937958%220 W · 159 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed AFC Bournemouth69c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.641957.9%11 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed AFC Bournemouth67c43.23$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.230554.8%167 W · 138 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d19…0b39backed Manchester United FC31c43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.331855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fef…a3d3backed Manchester United FC31c41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.771250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Manchester United FC46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.429751.9%154 W · 143 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1e…407abacked Manchester United FC53c37.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Manchester United FC43c37.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.328246.1%130 W · 152 L-12.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb08f…4ab7backed Manchester United FC33c37.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Manchester United FC57c35.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5017…4daebacked Manchester United FC56c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d3…91aabacked Manchester United FC32c34.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.091323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fed…0d78backed AFC Bournemouth68c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.563366.7%22 W · 11 L+4.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+31.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.