AI · resolved market
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5074bb49c52a2d552bc45f044419f2168ade7cc5072762a47b257d076ca820bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 61c | 1,301$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…3ddbbacked Yes | 51c | 711.02$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 39c | 565$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 13c | 558.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 39c | 530$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 39c | 507$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 69c | 459.04$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed No | 55c | 389.33$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 61c | 301$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 32c | 223.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…2d87backed Yes | 48c | 208.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…9495backed Yes | 47c | 205.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed No | 50c | 87.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…b605backed Yes | 39c | 86.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 84.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…55ecbacked Yes | 63c | 78.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 33c | 74.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 59.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 26c | 47.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…5a2fbacked No | 62c | 47.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 63c | 46.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2a…ca06backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 35c | 37.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 57c | 36.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd735…0aabbacked Yes | 37c | 36.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…a123backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…9d59backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…34aabacked No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…7ff5backed Yes | 73c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 73c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.