Movies · resolved market
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157b4aebf3ff1f45ca5d41bdffb66c3a888a0ceaec9f7a7167e08cf2138130cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 11c | 18,602$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.86 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…aa44backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 10c | 5,065$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…b0e4backed Yes | 1c | 4,907$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…e29ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,047$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…c9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,446$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,926$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,862$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…eb10backed Yes | 1c | 1,754$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417a…d61dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,697$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,635$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…86acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,610$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…4eb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,555$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 7c | 1,404$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…b293backed Yes | 7c | 1,260$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,247$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 1,247$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 6c | 1,221$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 80c | 718.79$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 692.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…b044backed Yes | 3c | 594.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 6c | 544$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 501$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…0c26backed Yes | 4c | 333.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 319.47$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 35c | 228.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 10c | 215$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 209$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?this page
- Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?No won
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?No won
- Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?No won
- Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?No won
- Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond?No won
- Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?No won
- James Norton announced as next James Bond?No won
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes won
- Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?No won
- Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?No won
- Theo James announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.