Movies · resolved market
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d52b2db68983b9078e0299a86096725664ca7a434017922f7ea1c06b92b034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $479,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $457,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 13c | 52,021$6,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,698.19 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,966$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…2f9bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,444$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,981$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…38cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,398$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 8c | 2,239$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 1c | 2,049$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…c9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,004$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 3c | 1,977$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +124%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…8d88backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…facdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,868$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,811$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef82…f8c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,792$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…2af0backed Yes | 3c | 1,738$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27dc…ed67backed Yes | 2c | 1,737$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…70f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,730$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…9147backed Yes | 3c | 1,699$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2939…396abacked Yes | 2c | 1,679$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…2ef7backed Yes | 3c | 1,631$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e8…2867backed Yes | 1c | 1,589$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…8e93backed Yes | 2c | 1,574$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd728…0a95backed Yes | 2c | 1,564$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…6761backed Yes | 2c | 1,557$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…f2bcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,553$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…3c6cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,526$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…54d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,497$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…1b9cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,453$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…f7d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,450$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4519…cc15backed Yes | 2c | 1,444$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…f75fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,435$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,399$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…0ad9backed Yes | 3c | 1,371$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb06…dbeebacked Yes | 3c | 1,360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,327$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335e…0a4dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,307$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…de71backed Yes | 3c | 1,299$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 3c | 1,249$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81db…3237backed Yes | 2c | 1,244$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…c127backed Yes | 2c | 1,242$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…807dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…c446backed Yes | 3c | 1,228$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…96c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,203$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…d5bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,187$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,168$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefeb…6944backed Yes | 2c | 1,151$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505b…93bebacked Yes | 3c | 1,102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,073$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…203bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,015$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…78cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,001$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…ee17backed Yes | 2c | 990$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…7f11backed Yes | 2c | 989.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…b976backed Yes | 3c | 962$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…f8c5backed Yes | 3c | 957$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 927.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 10c | 894$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…e9aabacked Yes | 2c | 885.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5d…a7f9backed Yes | 3c | 870$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 2c | 867.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…d8a1backed Yes | 3c | 866$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…ceedbacked Yes | 3c | 854$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…1240backed Yes | 2c | 832$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 822.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fce…c93dbacked Yes | 2c | 821$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…9046backed Yes | 3c | 809$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…cb26backed Yes | 2c | 791$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…99cfbacked Yes | 3c | 768$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 15c | 758$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 749.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 4c | 748.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5e…326fbacked Yes | 3c | 710$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…c645backed Yes | 5c | 703.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…81d4backed Yes | 3c | 699$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…c09dbacked Yes | 3c | 693$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Yes | 3c | 688.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 15c | 646$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed Yes | 15c | 628$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…1199backed Yes | 2c | 615$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bd…349abacked Yes | 3c | 592$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 554.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0b…accbbacked Yes | 2c | 553$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…c994backed Yes | 3c | 526$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 4c | 512.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…222fbacked Yes | 2c | 495$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…4501backed Yes | 2c | 473.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…03c8backed Yes | 6c | 469.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 459.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…17fcbacked Yes | 3c | 430$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 15c | 406$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 15c | 385$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…9ce6backed Yes | 3c | 364$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…4e16backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…6c5bbacked Yes | 6c | 244.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6063…51d5backed Yes | 9c | 175.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 15c | 139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?this page
- Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?No won
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?No won
- Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?No won
- Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?No won
- Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond?No won
- Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?No won
- James Norton announced as next James Bond?No won
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes won
- Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?No won
- Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?No won
- Theo James announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.