Movies · resolved market
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31eaf3b4bfb0c7107250f8aae9dfaf18a821a6c58fe1b5254a1b77542a4c836c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f10…f544backed Yes | 19c | 15,837$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 15c | 8,714$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.9 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Yes | 2c | 5,561$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,328$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,416$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 3,177$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1845…6115backed Yes | 1c | 2,486$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…c9ffbacked Yes | 3c | 2,070$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 1c | 1,814$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…101abacked Yes | 9c | 1,656$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,643$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 67c | 1,630$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.01 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…3bddbacked Yes | 12c | 1,601$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 20c | 1,568$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Yes | 24c | 1,464$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,321$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 1,264$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 8c | 1,262$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7be0backed Yes | 6c | 1,252$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6601…740dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,137$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…43dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,074$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…9b22backed Yes | 4c | 1,048$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,008$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 1,007$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 947.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 8c | 881.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…803abacked Yes | 5c | 865.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…3324backed Yes | 4c | 852$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…bcc7backed Yes | 4c | 851$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…8458backed Yes | 4c | 838.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4f…c455backed Yes | 4c | 837$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 9c | 811.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…7bb4backed Yes | 3c | 777$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…e56abacked Yes | 4c | 777$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…7606backed Yes | 4c | 754.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 727.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…84c3backed Yes | 4c | 666$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39a…926dbacked Yes | 3c | 649.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 632.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 611.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7392…b93abacked Yes | 4c | 572$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 566.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…403dbacked Yes | 4c | 563$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6cd7backed Yes | 3c | 535$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 470.39$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 470$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 4c | 466.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…7860backed Yes | 5c | 451.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…81d7backed Yes | 4c | 437$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…6b9abacked Yes | 7c | 432.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…0416backed Yes | 4c | 426$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…f4d8backed Yes | 22c | 419.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc031…d78fbacked Yes | 4c | 410$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 12c | 406.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…34bdbacked Yes | 4c | 403.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…15fdbacked Yes | 4c | 398$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…6b67backed Yes | 3c | 398$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 363.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…1279backed Yes | 4c | 356.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 344.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes | 9c | 342$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 5c | 341.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…dd10backed Yes | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd996…bc36backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 7c | 308$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 7c | 307.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 5c | 305.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…bd1fbacked Yes | 4c | 302.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…4f02backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 280.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 5c | 277.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…68ebbacked Yes | 5c | 276$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…0539backed Yes | 7c | 228.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…b293backed Yes | 6c | 227.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…b542backed Yes | 9c | 222.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602e…7859backed Yes | 7c | 215.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…aab9backed Yes | 5c | 212.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 19c | 211.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3d…a73fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 9c | 199$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe436…3941backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…c3d1backed Yes | 8c | 177.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 47c | 170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…e41fbacked Yes | 8c | 149.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 142.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 75c | 141.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e1…1bbfbacked Yes | 7c | 141.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x176b…1fe9backed Yes | 14c | 139$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753d…638fbacked Yes | 9c | 133.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 123.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 122$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 14c | 105.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?this page
- Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?No won
- Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?No won
- Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?No won
- Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?No won
- Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond?No won
- Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?No won
- James Norton announced as next James Bond?No won
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes won
- Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?No won
- Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?No won
- Theo James announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.