TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$192,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,540 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f10…f544backed Yes19c15,837$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes15c8,714$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.93414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12c3…a470backed Yes2c5,561$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c5,328$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.241,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,416$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c3,177$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.62894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes22c3,000$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1845…6115backed Yes1c2,486$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4414…c9ffbacked Yes3c2,070$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes1c1,814$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a1…101abacked Yes9c1,656$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c1,643$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.09472.1%1 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No67c1,630$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.016028.3%17 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…3bddbacked Yes12c1,601$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes20c1,568$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.61070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed Yes24c1,464$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes1c1,321$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes5c1,320$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes7c1,264$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.115324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf95f…f988backed Yes8c1,262$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.23520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6132…7be0backed Yes6c1,252$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6601…740dbacked Yes4c1,137$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9526…43dcbacked Yes4c1,125$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes2c1,074$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.23410%0 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d4…9b22backed Yes4c1,048$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c1,008$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.65983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c1,007$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.741549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes4c947.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9510042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked Yes8c881.02$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.414316.3%7 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb94…803abacked Yes5c865.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x573e…3324backed Yes4c852$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba38…bcc7backed Yes4c851$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d1…8458backed Yes4c838.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf4f…c455backed Yes4c837$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes9c811.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0300…7bb4backed Yes3c777$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf2…e56abacked Yes4c777$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1358…7606backed Yes4c754.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes7c727.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf8…84c3backed Yes4c666$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39a…926dbacked Yes3c649.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c632.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.872042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes7c611.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9610632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7392…b93abacked Yes4c572$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c566.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.979021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc6…403dbacked Yes4c563$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927c…6cd7backed Yes3c535$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No62c470.39$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.334252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c470$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.698442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes4c466.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.153917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eca…7860backed Yes5c451.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2de…81d7backed Yes4c437$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…6b9abacked Yes7c432.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b5…0416backed Yes4c426$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ed…f4d8backed Yes22c419.15$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc031…d78fbacked Yes4c410$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes12c406.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6b…34bdbacked Yes4c403.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff48…15fdbacked Yes4c398$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…6b67backed Yes3c398$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c363.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1560…1279backed Yes4c356.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c344.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes9c342$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.09119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed Yes5c341.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.131216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid+55.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa525…dd10backed Yes5c330$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd996…bc36backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a3…88d0backed Yes7c308$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31b…5f28backed Yes7c307.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes5c305.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa64f…bd1fbacked Yes4c302.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.254247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8390%0 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb54a…4f02backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c290$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c280.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.76674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes5c277.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.024663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xae3d…68ebbacked Yes5c276$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…0539backed Yes7c228.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.01633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…b293backed Yes6c227.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2499…b542backed Yes9c222.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x602e…7859backed Yes7c215.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37f0…aab9backed Yes5c212.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes19c211.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb3d…a73fbacked Yes12c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes9c199$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.924645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe436…3941backed Yes6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…c3d1backed Yes8c177.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked No47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.11560%9 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+119.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes19c149.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbdf…e41fbacked Yes8c149.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No78c142.24$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.786446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No75c141.62$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e1…1bbfbacked Yes7c141.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176b…1fe9backed Yes14c139$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x753d…638fbacked Yes9c133.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c123.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.911,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c122$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes14c105.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.