Token Launches · resolved market
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e0f8ff4f0ff64a3f232c6325d69ed10efcad407779ae405e22cff71cc34393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $340,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $346,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe6c…69b7backed No | 17c | 37,395$6,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,204.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…cc4ebacked Yes | 74c | 19,306$14,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,928.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed No | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 23c | 9,761$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.34 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…d90abacked Yes | 76c | 8,697$6,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…dc27backed No | 3c | 8,466$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,871$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…91b8backed No | 18c | 6,332$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 74c | 6,185$4,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.59 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 24c | 5,627$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.68 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 29c | 5,442$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…8f6abacked No | 30c | 4,906$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…c244backed Yes | 78c | 4,362$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 21c | 4,072$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 76c | 3,719$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.51 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 16c | 3,370$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.19 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…9fcabacked No | 10c | 3,215$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…0d2abacked No | 30c | 2,967$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…0533backed Yes | 72c | 2,964$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 28c | 2,888$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.5 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 70c | 2,860$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…00f3backed Yes | 75c | 2,597$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…1480backed No | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 14c | 2,459$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.43 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 28c | 2,429$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.83 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 18c | 2,184$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.69 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 8c | 2,115$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.65 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf623…bb2cbacked No | 5c | 2,017$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…d732backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa948…f202backed No | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…2828backed Yes | 74c | 1,954$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…4cf2backed No | 29c | 1,923$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 14c | 1,919$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.3 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 13c | 1,865$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.23 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,692$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.69 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…c4f2backed Yes | 76c | 1,614$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +320.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 25c | 1,604$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.87 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe36e…ad3abacked No | 2c | 1,571$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed Yes | 76c | 1,523$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.92 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 14c | 1,461$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 14c | 1,423$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 22c | 1,409$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.1 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a701backed Yes | 79c | 1,357$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 79c | 1,355$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…e18abacked Yes | 70c | 1,348$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,333$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.21 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x341f…560dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,238$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +131%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked No | 20c | 1,225$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 33c | 1,086$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 12c | 1,047$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 2c | 1,047$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5798…ab44backed No | 25c | 1,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked No | 26c | 999.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes | 73c | 989.77$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…36afbacked Yes | 72c | 967.55$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 73c | 966.88$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 937.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba8…5798backed No | 20c | 870.78$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…4071backed Yes | 69c | 862.39$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked No | 28c | 831.9$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.71 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…a0efbacked No | 25c | 798.35$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…898abacked No | 17c | 770.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…6b4fbacked No | 27c | 762.85$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…b6a5backed No | 8c | 729.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed No | 7c | 714.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa267…df98backed Yes | 77c | 700$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 21c | 697.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.67 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…d014backed Yes | 78c | 682.93$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…f41abacked Yes | 79c | 675.92$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…1d3abacked Yes | 71c | 674.82$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…8858backed Yes | 73c | 663.17$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 604.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 28c | 603.88$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…957abacked Yes | 74c | 585.51$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 20c | 573.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…1c31backed Yes | 69c | 566.53$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…3ae6backed No | 18c | 549.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 3c | 546.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…5410backed Yes | 73c | 516.64$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…61e1backed No | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…c7f9backed Yes | 76c | 482.72$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 478.21$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…692cbacked Yes | 66c | 475.52$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79b…8deebacked No | 15c | 464.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 30c | 450.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.87 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 22c | 445.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c87…7a9abacked Yes | 71c | 429.95$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 4c | 426.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed No | 16c | 411.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…187fbacked Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…020abacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed No | 27c | 369.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 24c | 343.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.