TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$340,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$346,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe6c…69b7backed No17c37,395$6,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,204.272133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ad…cc4ebacked Yes74c19,306$14,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,928.44977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+55.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed No10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002560%15 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde28…a563backed No23c9,761$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.34147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d82…d90abacked Yes76c8,697$6,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-78%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe48a…dc27backed No3c8,466$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c7,871$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.132061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca03…91b8backed No18c6,332$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.891650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb67…d696backed Yes74c6,185$4,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.597270.8%51 W · 21 L+20.9wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+190%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No24c5,627$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.6812840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No29c5,442$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.21922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-65.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked No30c4,906$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.7160%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f76…c244backed Yes78c4,362$3,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.583100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No21c4,072$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.422020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes76c3,719$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.515459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed No16c3,370$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.196937.7%26 W · 43 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+87.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ec5…9fcabacked No10c3,215$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.1860%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked No30c2,967$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3594…0533backed Yes72c2,964$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…f99fbacked No28c2,888$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.55345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc1c…3439backed Yes70c2,860$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.22540%10 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94c1…00f3backed Yes75c2,597$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+106.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5602…1480backed No18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No14c2,459$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.433622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No28c2,429$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.834131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No18c2,184$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.6913131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No8c2,115$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6511421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf623…bb2cbacked No5c2,017$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.881040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e30…d732backed Yes72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa948…f202backed No26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a70…2828backed Yes74c1,954$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.17850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd94f…4cf2backed No29c1,923$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.781513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed No14c1,919$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.311225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No13c1,865$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2320551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes78c1,692$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.692536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c30…c4f2backed Yes76c1,614$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+320.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No25c1,604$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.873710.8%4 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe36e…ad3abacked No2c1,571$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.37812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid+15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa135…68b8backed Yes76c1,523$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.923033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked No3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cea…cc13backed No14c1,461$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No14c1,423$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.561338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No22c1,409$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.13013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a701backed Yes79c1,357$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2583…02ddbacked Yes79c1,355$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.52360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+51.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3dbc…e18abacked Yes70c1,348$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.21887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+76.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4204…d02bbacked Yes72c1,333$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.211492.9%13 W · 1 L+8.2wins+0.59per pick34cpaid+617.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x341f…560dbacked Yes77c1,238$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+131%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked No20c1,225$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No5c1,100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No18c1,100$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1985320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No33c1,086$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.851010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-80.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No12c1,047$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.363256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa791…c0d2backed No2c1,047$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed No25c1,000$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked No24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d06…ec01backed Yes73c999.99$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b85…cd3abacked No26c999.97$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes73c989.77$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.241457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ca…36afbacked Yes72c967.55$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes73c966.88$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.33262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c937.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.523283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No15c900$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba8…5798backed No20c870.78$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19fe…4071backed Yes69c862.39$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked No28c831.9$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.712147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab3…a0efbacked No25c798.35$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.581136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked No17c770.29$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.641827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524c…6b4fbacked No27c762.85$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbec…b6a5backed No8c729.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.281030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed No7c714.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.032227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa267…df98backed Yes77c700$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed No21c697.94$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.673946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x684d…d014backed Yes78c682.93$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.521566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d7…f41abacked Yes79c675.92$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.941145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+189.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7814…1d3abacked Yes71c674.82$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.74100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+234.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x711e…8858backed Yes73c663.17$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.062050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+207.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c604.26$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9825422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No28c603.88$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.677047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c04…957abacked Yes74c585.51$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick67cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No20c573.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.365127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcabf…1c31backed Yes69c566.53$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed No18c549.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No3c546.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.512917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c25…5410backed Yes73c516.64$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.39450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe948…61e1backed No28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7093…c7f9backed Yes76c482.72$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes73c478.21$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3419336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bce…692cbacked Yes66c475.52$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79b…8deebacked No15c464.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No30c450.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8714437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No22c445.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.563627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c87…7a9abacked Yes71c429.95$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.241546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No4c426.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x612e…8626backed No16c411.83$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.891450%7 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+190.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5036…187fbacked Yes71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1e…020abacked No27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed No27c369.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a5…d93bbacked No24c343.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.332045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+102.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.