TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,104 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca03…91b8backed No13c14,710$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.671650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48a…dc27backed No2c11,350$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.952133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No14c9,546$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.614131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cea…cc13backed No1c6,001$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde28…a563backed No17c5,604$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.05147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa791…c0d2backed No1c3,394$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No5c2,664$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.212020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked No17c2,355$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.8960%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed No4c2,040$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7411225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x612e…8626backed No5c2,000$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091450%7 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+190.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21e3…ea87backed No4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No12c1,957$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.213710.8%4 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d06…ec01backed Yes73c1,900$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5092250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No18c1,551$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5514437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No14c1,485$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.153013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No19c1,470$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.2112840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c1,440$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked No21c1,188$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…f99fbacked No16c1,135$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.555345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked No5c1,111$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6c…741fbacked No13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No9c999.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903650%18 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c982.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.233283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0728…40f4backed No32c928.71$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No22c926.45$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.471010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-80.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No16c823.76$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.367047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ba8…5798backed No12c711.41$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bce…692cbacked Yes77c607.33$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2cb…6dc4backed No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No3c461.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0220551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked No17c444.54$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde64…4964backed Yes75c423.81$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+53.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed No13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2513…97ddbacked No16c374.08$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.41616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…6b4fbacked No15c366.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c1e…020abacked No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…61e1backed No16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7450…b5acbacked No16c300$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No12c271.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5633329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee97…974bbacked No17c264.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.91428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb23…b501backed No7c259.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.19825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x419f…e853backed No5c253.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick12cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed No19c233.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9a…c3f4backed No19c232.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No8c225.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.263315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79b…8deebacked No5c224.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcff3…2eeebacked No20c222.81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdc…5a2ebacked No9c217.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.633754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f69…78a7backed No16c214.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0f…dc63backed Yes79c206.93$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes77c200.85$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.115459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9f…b921backed No19c185.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No16c183.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.966927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb671…8349backed No16c181.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.011241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked No19c176.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed No10c174.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.418154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ff2…90e4backed No21c170.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.442330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc973…dbc7backed No12c170$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No14c156.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.573495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba31…d1dfbacked No18c149.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e98…8e8dbacked No15c137.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64fb…f27cbacked No16c137.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-82.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d64…a5e5backed Yes80c135.95$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa289…daa5backed No21c126.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0053…b066backed No13c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No14c119.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.685127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd764…5e02backed No19c106.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No10c106.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.223360.6%20 W · 13 L+7.9wins+0.24per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3036…efa3backed No17c103.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.612236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bdd…c9a9backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x695a…6ee6backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b1…fa4cbacked Yes78c99.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b98…d011backed Yes74c98.08$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No20c88.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedb9…148ebacked No20c88.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No15c87.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d1…3052backed No18c84.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb65a…b3aebacked No17c73.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.324126.8%11 W · 30 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-50.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6e6d…76f5backed No19c67.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.892941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+263.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb09e…17d6backed No16c67.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc70…e75dbacked Yes78c62.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.661560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6089…5c9abacked No19c55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bd…6504backed Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes75c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…59c5backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42483.3%20 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.