Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa74c8720a63a78ed2dd61c3bc2208820c390fa3dd62cf38dcde618c0dfa80d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 16c | 4,518$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.48 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 15c | 579.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 16c | 529$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 512.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 17c | 508.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 490.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…ad22backed Yes | 24c | 463.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 17c | 426.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 16c | 421.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 289.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 279.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 37c | 273.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 17c | 237.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 26c | 200.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes | 17c | 174.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 80c | 165.71$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 27c | 165.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…385abacked Yes | 10c | 153.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 132.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 112.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 11c | 108.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 107.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 19c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 99.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 23c | 93.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…9483backed Yes | 24c | 83.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1043…253abacked No | 72c | 76.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 71.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 28c | 71.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 67.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…36a9backed Yes | 30c | 66.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 24c | 60.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed Yes | 24c | 59.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 32c | 53.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 21c | 50.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 37.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes | 33c | 33.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 71c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdceb…53efbacked No | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…e58abacked No | 72c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…b563backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or higher on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.