Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45a9690c45d3d23d84531b69c7cc856000c92e144aafc76a5ec26afcab9383f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdceb…53efbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed No | 0c | 2,895$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 80c | 2,216$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,769$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.41 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 75c | 1,755$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.81 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…2ac4backed No | 17c | 537.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 35c | 514$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 15c | 450.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 418.5$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 38c | 367.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 20c | 340.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 76c | 326.03$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 69c | 290.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 280.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…1894backed No | 12c | 277.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 251.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…9f98backed No | 20c | 250.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 79c | 248.16$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 80c | 212.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 62c | 189.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…d7a8backed Yes | 69c | 176.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 59c | 168.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 54c | 150.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 23c | 138.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 136.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 51c | 133.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 131.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 122.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 120.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 114.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 54c | 112.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 106.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…b393backed No | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed No | 18c | 100.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 16c | 96.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9fcfbacked No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 51c | 93.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…526cbacked Yes | 75c | 89.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 32c | 77.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…05c1backed No | 16c | 68.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 36c | 68.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 37c | 62.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed No | 40c | 60.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 36c | 58.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbee…7b46backed Yes | 57c | 55.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…18dabacked Yes | 77c | 54.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…385abacked Yes | 48c | 52.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 53c | 51.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 42c | 51.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…9b62backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…2c58backed No | 51c | 44.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes | 72c | 44.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 58c | 42.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…84fbbacked Yes | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…0c98backed No | 44c | 42.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 48c | 41.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…fef1backed Yes | 54c | 40.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…09c9backed Yes | 55c | 40.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3224…67bebacked Yes | 79c | 39.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 66c | 38.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 36c | 38.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…93fdbacked Yes | 57c | 38.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 43c | 37.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…d92fbacked Yes | 75c | 34.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 59c | 33.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…5afebacked No | 50c | 33.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…bbd0backed Yes | 52c | 32.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…0813backed Yes | 50c | 31.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 57c | 31.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21b…31d1backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…808abacked No | 51c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…59e7backed Yes | 57c | 26.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1af7…8d1dbacked Yes | 71c | 25.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…f481backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf153…bad1backed No | 62c | 24.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 67c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…7cf0backed Yes | 62c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd370…7f8cbacked Yes | 78c | 23.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…6b01backed No | 61c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 59c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…5446backed Yes | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…6bf3backed Yes | 69c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or higher on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.