Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ac6a3b52c4077a389c84971f59d616ecb202756b269086123b5e2759088422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 15c | 576.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 6c | 549.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…9812backed Yes | 7c | 537.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 11c | 470.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1e…c6a1backed Yes | 3c | 463.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 12c | 417.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 386.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…1894backed Yes | 9c | 386.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…0099backed Yes | 8c | 301.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 15c | 291.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1043…253abacked Yes | 19c | 258.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 6c | 249.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 5c | 244.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 18c | 235$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 17c | 234.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 219.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 218.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 213.82$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 212.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bb…fa19backed Yes | 19c | 198.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 18c | 177.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 14c | 169.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 8c | 165.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes | 15c | 163.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 159.26$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 132.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 132$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…5585backed Yes | 36c | 126.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 15c | 114.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 11c | 112.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…878abacked Yes | 11c | 107.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…fef1backed Yes | 19c | 104.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 104.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 21c | 99.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 15c | 96.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 88.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 54c | 86.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 17c | 82.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 18c | 78.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 19c | 76.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 17c | 76.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 27c | 71.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes | 22c | 68.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…526cbacked Yes | 19c | 64.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 63.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 71c | 62.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 41c | 39.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 30c | 37.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 76c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or higher on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.