TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f63…310d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$50.46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$81.18
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,671Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,670.72
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$2,697.63
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$729Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$728.87
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,258.66
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,634Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,633.61
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,744Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$778.18
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,297Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+139%+$4,583.79
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,063.83
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,256Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,255.85
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,870Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+177.2%+$3,315.34
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$778Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$778.32
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,149.19
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,025Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+179.9%+$1,844.66
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,074Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,074.16
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$635Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+231%+$1,466.67
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$346
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$672
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$306
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$370
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+320.1%+$1,184.39
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$694Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$345.14
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.55
All 24 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST1931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NHL — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wild vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Blue Jackets vs. Golden Knightsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Islanders vs. Predatorsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Canucks vs. Red Wingsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Panthers vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+112.8%+$16.91
Maple Leafs vs. Flyersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+108.3%+$16.25
Flames vs. Bruinsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$13.1
Sharks vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Senators vs. Kingsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Oilers vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+85.2%+$10.22
Rangers vs. Golden Knightsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Ducks vs. Red Wingsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Capitals vs. Panthersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Kings vs. Maple Leafsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Rangers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Stars vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Kings vs. Canadiensbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+100%+$20
Islanders vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Predators vs. Rangersbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 19 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dolphins vs. Jetsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+75.4%+$14.33
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+92.3%+$11.91
Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Patriots vs. Bengalsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+29.9%+$8.96
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+56.3%+$6.75
49ers vs. Cardinalsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$8.44
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+100%+$25
Spread: Lions (-8.5)backed Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+108.3%+$32.5
Spread: Texans (-3.5)backed Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Jaguars vs. Texansbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Saints vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 11 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Raptors (-10.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+35.1%+$8.78
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+49.3%+$7.39
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 5 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$17.68
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+58.7%+$17.62
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+58.7%+$23.49
All 3 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$10
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+72.4%+$43.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$11.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$7.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.