TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Texas State vs. Southern Miss

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Stateof Texas State, Southern Miss
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,316,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,254,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,316,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 588 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3657…6b14backed Southern Miss61c1,968,428$1,199,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199,960.142958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Texas State39c683,000$265,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417,459.834163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Texas State39c512,821$200,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312,820.81966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Texas State40c321,800$128,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193,555.821055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Texas State39c200,000$78,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,5006832.4%22 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Texas State39c130,000$50,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,299.9116635.5%59 W · 107 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Texas State40c120,320$48,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,839.214752.4%77 W · 70 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Texas State39c111,974$43,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,004.018948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Texas State39c85,939$33,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,365.22785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+58%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Southern Miss60c81,948$49,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,568.755750.9%29 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texas State40c72,374$28,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,700.512,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Texas State39c68,537$26,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,881.3358850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Texas State40c61,910$24,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,1465141.2%21 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Texas State42c61,613$25,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,994.874841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Texas State41c52,619$21,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,222.6881847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Southern Miss61c41,067$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00019362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Southern Miss61c38,756$23,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,641.11258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Texas State40c34,974$14,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,918.152343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Southern Miss60c31,915$19,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,148.947853.8%42 W · 36 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Southern Miss62c31,236$19,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,303.093148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d9…a3e9backed Southern Miss60c28,775$17,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,264.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Texas State40c28,475$11,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,169.418549.4%42 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Texas State40c26,245$10,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,746.8865945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Texas State41c25,000$10,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,75027246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Southern Miss12c23,983$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,877.6664841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e77…4505backed Southern Miss61c19,684$12,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,007.21850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Southern Miss60c17,856$10,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,713.62646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Texas State49c15,190$7,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7801127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Texas State40c15,035$5,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,085.0817443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Texas State41c14,643$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,642.867146.5%33 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Texas State39c14,183$5,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,651.842737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Texas State40c12,930$5,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,757.9920450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Southern Miss60c12,607$7,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,564.372045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Texas State39c12,187$4,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,434.1793548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2746…f918backed Southern Miss60c10,834$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texas State40c10,223$4,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,135.9752641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b19…30aebacked Texas State40c10,050$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0302100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad0…a24ebacked Texas State40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Texas State39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,099.989540%38 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Southern Miss0c9,908$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.59790%0 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Texas State46c9,119$4,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,938.6886243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Southern Miss35c8,701$3,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.3862843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x554e…1cddbacked Southern Miss60c8,420$5,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,052250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40fa…f205backed Southern Miss60c8,400$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,04020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x995e…746cbacked Southern Miss60c8,300$4,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,980250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Southern Miss56c8,189$4,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,620.58785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.36per pick49cpaid+78.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Texas State39c8,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8805064%32 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Texas State39c8,000$3,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8446947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Southern Miss58c7,825$4,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,538.736547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a38…950bbacked Southern Miss61c7,820$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,770.220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Texas State40c7,775$3,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,651.4310851.9%56 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Texas State40c7,359$2,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,415.6915451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Southern Miss53c7,090$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7253342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Southern Miss46c6,877$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.121457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Texas State40c6,000$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.1110046%46 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Southern Miss62c5,455$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,382.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a8c…d943backed Texas State40c5,100$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Texas State40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa125…7cdfbacked Southern Miss61c4,918$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Southern Miss60c4,500$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70038546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce49…af42backed Southern Miss60c4,436$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Southern Miss61c4,237$2,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,584.63948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Southern Miss47c4,200$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.5317837.6%67 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Southern Miss27c4,093$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.4119842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf014…d442backed Southern Miss61c4,087$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4931643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Southern Miss6c4,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Texas State39c3,600$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20125629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Texas State41c3,537$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.651369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Southern Miss60c3,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b2…df60backed Southern Miss61c3,279$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Southern Miss3c3,077$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5813933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Texas State40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80011541.7%48 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Texas State41c3,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7807448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Southern Miss26c2,962$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.2526750.9%136 W · 131 L+21.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3daa…be4ebacked Southern Miss49c2,889$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7361…2f78backed Southern Miss60c2,860$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Southern Miss61c2,815$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.13119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-79.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7540…47eebacked Southern Miss61c2,752$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Southern Miss60c2,730$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Texas State42c2,688$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.8120553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Texas State40c2,562$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.4749443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Texas State40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.984847.9%23 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Southern Miss62c2,418$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4992751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Southern Miss62c2,396$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.0829249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf67c…2f87backed Southern Miss61c2,284$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Texas State41c2,205$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.3650358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Texas State39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2201369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Texas State39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2202259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Southern Miss60c2,000$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1904744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Southern Miss35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003030%9 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Southern Miss60c2,000$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2101050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Texas State41c1,997$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.9411851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Texas State40c1,996$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.614743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Southern Miss3c1,852$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5763243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Southern Miss19c1,829$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3402470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Texas State40c1,800$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.7634529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Texas State40c1,779$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.761,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Southern Miss57c1,776$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-63.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed Texas State41c1,700$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0031060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3bb…c8acbacked Southern Miss59c1,700$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.