TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Kings vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Kings, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,104,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,187,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,104,351 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 529 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Maple Leafs45c382,368$171,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,792.989340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Kings55c222,222$122,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,00014057.9%81 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Kings55c91,319$50,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,085.5717749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Kings36c90,000$32,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,305.9242552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Kings57c77,583$44,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,360.724264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Maple Leafs60c61,071$36,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,599.0314538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Kings51c54,837$28,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,605.582339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Kings54c50,385$27,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,374.921,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Maple Leafs45c35,000$15,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,749.993339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Kings55c31,072$17,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,025.313449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Kings55c29,353$16,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,208.714949%24 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Maple Leafs43c28,265$12,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,154.024450%22 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Kings47c26,207$12,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,779.0541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Maple Leafs45c26,000$11,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,7004650%23 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e02…f9f4backed Kings54c25,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Maple Leafs43c24,157$10,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,440.8357453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Maple Leafs68c22,672$15,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,453.3244848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Kings31c22,475$7,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,415.374035%14 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Maple Leafs45c18,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,10011352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Maple Leafs44c17,645$7,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,763.659548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Kings55c17,000$9,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6506055%33 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Maple Leafs45c16,010$7,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,161.078952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Maple Leafs49c14,980$7,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,334.9910352.4%54 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ac…9778backed Maple Leafs47c13,000$6,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,11010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Kings51c12,344$6,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,086.821,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd85b…be3ebacked Maple Leafs47c12,000$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,64010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Maple Leafs46c10,997$5,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,047.7354047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs46c10,600$4,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,875.8888151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Kings55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Maple Leafs44c8,995$3,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,957.870547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Maple Leafs43c8,419$3,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6205259.6%31 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Maple Leafs50c7,500$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7505745.6%26 W · 31 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d00…fae1backed Kings53c6,774$3,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,183.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7f…3229backed Maple Leafs47c6,769$3,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Kings55c6,599$3,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,969.578240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9556…71c4backed Kings54c6,557$3,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,016.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9df…833abacked Maple Leafs46c6,552$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,01410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Maple Leafs56c6,449$3,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,614.1527143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Maple Leafs46c6,044$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.0413551.1%69 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Maple Leafs45c6,000$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,67030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Kings56c5,941$3,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.3130551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Kings55c5,898$3,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,654.1186649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d4…57d8backed Maple Leafs46c5,653$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd32…f75fbacked Kings54c5,598$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Maple Leafs46c5,500$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,53030447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Maple Leafs75c5,234$3,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.7361848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Kings54c4,941$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.8531654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Kings55c4,936$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,221.414451.4%74 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Kings51c4,926$2,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.7428353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Maple Leafs45c4,900$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20525446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Maple Leafs43c4,878$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.541136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Kings56c4,357$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.083647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kings52c4,220$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.1675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Maple Leafs44c3,973$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.0551452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Maple Leafs44c3,877$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.9664242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Maple Leafs48c3,678$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.631127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-45.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Maple Leafs45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57511946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Maple Leafs43c3,488$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.934946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Maple Leafs44c3,274$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.682955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs47c3,200$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50450049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs69c3,199$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.442,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Maple Leafs43c3,151$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.934546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs44c3,150$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.193953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Maple Leafs43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29022546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Maple Leafs66c2,751$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.677163.4%45 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kings65c2,522$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.2699638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b8e1backed Kings55c2,182$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Maple Leafs47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Maple Leafs49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked Maple Leafs47c1,995$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.73636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc318…447abacked Maple Leafs47c1,957$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Maple Leafs46c1,870$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.157546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs46c1,862$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.5369550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5740…05a7backed Kings54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0c…0b98backed Maple Leafs47c1,809$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Maple Leafs45c1,800$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Kings55c1,780$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80161959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Kings55c1,766$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.0587447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Kings54c1,718$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.551,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Kings55c1,655$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.1397651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Maple Leafs44c1,544$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.9222150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Maple Leafs43c1,540$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.187250%36 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Maple Leafs2c1,521$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.412174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs46c1,498$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.5763249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a6c…bd76backed Maple Leafs47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ac…2047backed Kings54c1,276$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs1c1,231$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.317450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Maple Leafs45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5407338.4%28 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Kings52c1,167$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.1926547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Maple Leafs45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Maple Leafs45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1198…315dbacked Kings57c1,079$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+39.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc912…397dbacked Maple Leafs44c1,039$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Maple Leafs46c1,037$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.649250%46 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs46c1,033$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.181,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Kings54c1,000$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.6270249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed Kings57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4301330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a1…88f3backed Kings55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502030%6 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Maple Leafs45c999$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.552948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa9…d8adbacked Maple Leafs3c936.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.