TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb9ac…2047

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
32
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$44.71
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$68.91
Clippers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$700
Hawks vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$600
Hawks vs. Kingsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$763Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+63.9%+$487.5
Suns vs. Mavericksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+92.3%+$587.52
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+28.2%+$6.21
Warriors vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+75.4%+$11.32
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLBlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.42per pick53cpaid-82.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.73
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.88
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.19
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.96
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.66
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.76
Cubs vs. White Soxbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Parma: Camila Osorio vs Barbora Krejcikovabacked Barbora Krejcikova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+53.1%+$11.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$8.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+38.2%+$32.02
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.