TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Clippers vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clippersof Clippers, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,575,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,667,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,575,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,544 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Mavericks41c75,000$31,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,093.1838248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Clippers58c57,000$32,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,039.942937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Clippers57c49,385$28,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,235.4112334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Mavericks41c40,000$16,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,399.996253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mavericks43c35,029$14,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,906.532,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks40c31,438$12,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,570.7872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Clippers60c30,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Clippers67c29,661$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,661.234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks42c28,583$11,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,953.672,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Clippers59c26,770$15,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,975.76352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Clippers58c25,811$14,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,840.7417554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Clippers57c24,500$13,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,534.984456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Mavericks38c20,539$7,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,881.613248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks42c19,798$8,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,413.752,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Clippers77c17,942$13,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,144.68744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Clippers64c15,955$10,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.0919249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mavericks2c15,784$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.521,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Mavericks41c15,122$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,20012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Mavericks43c14,221$6,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,115.0344648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d7b…e6babacked Mavericks43c14,188$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,050.01862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d89…6e06backed Clippers59c13,600$8,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,576475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks41c13,453$5,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,512.079,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Mavericks33c13,042$4,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,304.0359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858c…c479backed Mavericks26c11,815$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.8840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Clippers59c11,395$6,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,671.9411558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Mavericks35c10,026$3,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,547.9234645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Mavericks41c9,657$3,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,959.177946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Clippers65c9,098$5,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,186.925,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Mavericks42c8,500$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,56066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Clippers59c8,475$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.5848448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Mavericks40c8,094$3,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2784344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba5c…7564backed Clippers61c7,975$4,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfda8…0868backed Mavericks39c7,969$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45bb…59c3backed Clippers60c7,359$4,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,943.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9379…a062backed Mavericks40c7,348$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Mavericks21c7,086$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.5427041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mavericks15c6,933$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.352,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mavericks17c6,838$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.081,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Mavericks1c6,792$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9264517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Clippers57c6,768$3,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,937.931,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mavericks13c6,694$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.551,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Clippers59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,46043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks43c6,000$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.981,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Clippers58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.8812657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Clippers64c5,973$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.4285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Mavericks42c5,882$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,490.589256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Mavericks15c5,123$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.895911.9%7 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Mavericks40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00028850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Clippers58c4,871$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.0855346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Mavericks43c4,593$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9751,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Clippers71c4,561$3,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.892,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mavericks18c4,429$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.4781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b90…6ba8backed Mavericks40c4,167$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…344abacked Clippers60c4,167$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks25c4,013$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.611,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Mavericks42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222e…0d53backed Mavericks4c4,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+110.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aca…ee0abacked Mavericks42c3,840$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Mavericks46c3,750$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.9773649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Clippers67c3,475$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.391,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b8e1backed Clippers58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Clippers67c3,316$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.7124634.6%85 W · 161 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers66c3,249$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.034,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Clippers60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Clippers58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2602,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Clippers59c2,930$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.364651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Clippers72c2,919$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.811,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b85…a1d8backed Clippers58c2,876$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.86650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Mavericks37c2,776$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.2248046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Mavericks11c2,774$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2542845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Mavericks41c2,655$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.717255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a08…77e3backed Mavericks39c2,562$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Clippers70c2,538$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.919388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xe7b4…0922backed Clippers61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Mavericks56c2,500$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.4220746.4%96 W · 111 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Mavericks51c2,500$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.895736.8%21 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Clippers60c2,488$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.3325753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks36c2,468$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.533,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf915…388fbacked Mavericks41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Clippers59c2,272$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Mavericks24c2,025$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48429458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Mavericks42c2,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Clippers57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86016633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Clippers68c2,000$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.2616750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4987…804bbacked Mavericks41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8203148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…51e3backed Mavericks33c2,000$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.4410941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Clippers60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed Mavericks26c2,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.832740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Mavericks42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8406636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Clippers77c1,954$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.2610852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55fa…c97dbacked Clippers57c1,951$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.791656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d96…443ebacked Mavericks26c1,937$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Clippers58c1,924$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.262,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Clippers65c1,895$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.5715461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24f…593dbacked Clippers44c1,836$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.261631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Mavericks46c1,800$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82819448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Clippers58c1,749$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.373148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mavericks28c1,745$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.2570153.5%375 W · 326 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Clippers58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.132657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.