NBA · resolved market
Spread: Clippers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28c787fe3aa1c29507417992e667fc0451c94d42f1eb7800338a29298d08d106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Clippers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc35a…e5d8backed Mavericks | 48c | 10,624$5,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,098.44 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks | 49c | 4,918$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.09 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Clippers | 52c | 4,096$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.94 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers | 53c | 3,816$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.52 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 51c | 3,523$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Clippers | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 65c | 2,398$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Clippers | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Clippers | 61c | 640$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Clippers | 49c | 416$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 51c | 412$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.83 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Clippers | 51c | 352.94$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 47c | 336$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…0d53backed Mavericks | 51c | 274.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Clippers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Clippers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Mavericks | 51c | 75.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Clippers | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Clippers | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…2ca4backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…1365backed Clippers | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…9684backed Clippers | 54c | 24.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…0908backed Clippers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)this page
- Clippers vs. MavericksClippers won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spread: Clippers (-3.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.