NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa11a52256020627865164884dadc4ebfb006fdc1059e0626e3a8e987e8df1b3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 46c | 6,457$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 45c | 5,430$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.5 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 53c | 4,426$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.29 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 4,156$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 1,651$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.14 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 443.96$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…03d0backed Over | 52c | 417$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…bb72backed Under | 49c | 416.33$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Over | 53c | 265.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over | 52c | 258.8$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 194$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 46c | 40.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6f16backed Over | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 218.5this page
- Clippers vs. MavericksClippers won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-3.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.