NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8032c780858dea4d05d69a52c585837a24c0269c5828ed69088995daa77422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Kings, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Kings | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 795$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Kings | 33c | 450.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Kings | 29c | 399.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Kings | 32c | 307.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 28c | 222.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…9624backed Kings | 30c | 128$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 118.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…0bf3backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 114$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kings | 29c | 105.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…1803backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 104.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…1278backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 104.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Kings | 29c | 83.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Kings | 32c | 54.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…166ebacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 53.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…1dc7backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 52.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…5279backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…7100backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…367fbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…43d1backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…9d51backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 47.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…9761backed Kings | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…f70abacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…8f27backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…7246backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…53c3backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…798fbacked Maple Leafs | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 71cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…85bfbacked Maple Leafs | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…5f83backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…9aefbacked Maple Leafs | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. Maple LeafsKings won
- Kings vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kings vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.