TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$858,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$913,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $858,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 788 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed Legacy47c63,641$30,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,072.6333043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked PARIVISION54c39,770$21,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,171.0183652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy42c39,498$16,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,435.491,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed PARIVISION52c38,594$20,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,505.3245848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Legacy47c31,915$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.959247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed PARIVISION53c22,000$11,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,34060853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Legacy52c21,400$11,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,103.494858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed PARIVISION53c21,277$11,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000.164100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION44c20,548$8,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,552.564,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Legacy46c15,775$7,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,285.9425842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION42c15,206$6,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,823.513,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed PARIVISION63c15,111$9,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,552.9323355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Legacy35c12,397$4,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,331.0172453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Legacy48c11,500$5,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,49035940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked PARIVISION53c11,437$6,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,375.277646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION43c10,674$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,124.0581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed PARIVISION53c10,468$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,867.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed PARIVISION11c9,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0106432.8%21 W · 43 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Legacy53c8,778$4,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,635.772520%5 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION38c8,641$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,393.391,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed PARIVISION17c8,351$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,922.732425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION52c7,905$4,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,781.6614441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…92c6backed Legacy55c7,356$4,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,048.911758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION55c7,277$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.31,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed PARIVISION43c7,207$3,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,120.153333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed PARIVISION36c6,000$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,851.475350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Legacy35c5,627$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.393,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4635…9f6fbacked PARIVISION53c5,434$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.595862.1%36 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed PARIVISION53c5,400$2,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,53830340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed PARIVISION56c5,327$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.389234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked PARIVISION50c4,802$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.813646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfccd…c054backed Legacy76c4,420$3,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,362.63366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8287…059ebacked Legacy47c4,236$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.95754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed PARIVISION53c4,190$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.159942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed PARIVISION40c4,000$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+59.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed PARIVISION52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9201,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked PARIVISION62c3,917$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.5316448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca1…abc0backed Legacy47c3,882$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec7…f874backed Legacy47c3,861$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed PARIVISION52c3,850$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.9871645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION53c3,789$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.741,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed PARIVISION48c3,644$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.1842142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked PARIVISION57c3,584$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.369343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Legacy68c3,459$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.5141850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Legacy35c3,138$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.9960953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed PARIVISION46c3,057$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.219037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed PARIVISION50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked PARIVISION53c2,789$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.228852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION41c2,735$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.822,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Legacy40c2,724$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10027452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION45c2,629$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.751,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked Legacy48c2,588$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.659252.2%48 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed PARIVISION54c2,556$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.4419448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7f…9550backed PARIVISION53c2,500$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1652458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed PARIVISION53c2,431$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.397363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed Legacy75c2,410$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.425563.6%35 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x722b…c68bbacked Legacy47c2,328$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.221070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x602a…0d75backed PARIVISION55c2,228$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.562339.1%9 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed PARIVISION54c2,111$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.1124846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf85…acc4backed Legacy47c2,095$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…bcf1backed Legacy53c2,082$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed PARIVISION32c2,000$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.984560%27 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed PARIVISION53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9402839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed PARIVISION52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed PARIVISION52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96010252%53 W · 49 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed PARIVISION35c1,986$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.055149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42d…808dbacked Legacy47c1,980$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4477…55aabacked PARIVISION53c1,980$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd82b…eea8backed PARIVISION53c1,950$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb5…502fbacked Legacy47c1,900$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5735…054fbacked PARIVISION54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Legacy37c1,834$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.7161228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce5…1e93backed Legacy47c1,830$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…0789backed PARIVISION53c1,830$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa93e…8accbacked Legacy47c1,809$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Legacy53c1,790$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.613426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Legacy73c1,785$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked PARIVISION56c1,781$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.2776748%368 W · 399 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed PARIVISION53c1,777$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.1978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Legacy40c1,759$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70096545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Legacy34c1,759$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.319834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Legacy42c1,751$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72810951.4%56 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7437…e1e9backed PARIVISION50c1,711$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.8610942.2%46 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked PARIVISION69c1,700$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52711353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed PARIVISION53c1,689$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.3513461.9%83 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x928e…d701backed PARIVISION58c1,639$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.74852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed PARIVISION61c1,638$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.511361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed PARIVISION36c1,555$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.7226743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x286c…caffbacked PARIVISION44c1,553$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.282860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Legacy67c1,530$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.492360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b4…9f6fbacked PARIVISION52c1,519$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.234067.5%27 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d7c…981cbacked Legacy37c1,514$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.954334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed PARIVISION53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7058657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed PARIVISION53c1,472$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.694362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec9…8d0bbacked PARIVISION38c1,450$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.3988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+42.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa037…2b2cbacked PARIVISION53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6581553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ce…1817backed PARIVISION53c1,387$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.892955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x218a…e227backed Legacy47c1,377$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Legacy47c1,370$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.0465662.3%409 W · 247 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb2…cac8backed Legacy48c1,353$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.