NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98fd79970e1082bab601ae852e807bdca1c59ec65c7dac102f193df826c073fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 51c | 16,736$8,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,200.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 15,745$7,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,715 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 11,078$5,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,698.87 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.99 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 46c | 4,232$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.54 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 4,207$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.39 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 51c | 2,765$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.78 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 2,500$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.34 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.04 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 1,739$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.89 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 46c | 1,050$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.98 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 46c | 866$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.36 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 832.19$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.77 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 49c | 795.91$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.12 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 678$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.69 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 52c | 591.11$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.67 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…adf9backed Under | 50c | 495.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 50c | 456$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…73f3backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 386.73$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 46c | 375.03$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.51 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 332.03$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 52c | 286$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 246$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 221.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Under | 49c | 204.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…15febacked Over | 48c | 187.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 51c | 186.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 170.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 49c | 128$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Over | 50c | 121.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…90f6backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 97.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed Over | 50c | 54.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 50c | 32.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…310dbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…e65abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad21…ea2fbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bb…aad7backed Over | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 51c | 27.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…ac8ebacked Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…d9cfbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5this page
- Patriots vs. BengalsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Patriots (-8.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.