NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd2b192b1e3ae78c423926c6151f2eb2809aacfa97866b4b32d8152a3072fad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Patriots, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 43c | 12,873$5,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,279.64 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bengals | 47c | 12,569$5,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,621.1 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Patriots | 49c | 11,550$5,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,708.72 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Patriots | 55c | 10,240$5,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,632.06 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bengals | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Patriots | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Patriots | 57c | 3,900$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Patriots | 57c | 3,500$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bengals | 43c | 2,566$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.87 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84a…055dbacked Patriots | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed Patriots | 57c | 2,429$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bengals | 50c | 2,132$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.64 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Patriots | 52c | 2,064$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.53 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Patriots | 52c | 2,056$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bengals | 51c | 1,806$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.88 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bengals | 45c | 1,094$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.27 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bengals | 44c | 1,012$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.01 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bengals | 52c | 962$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Patriots | 57c | 912.28$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Patriots | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bengals | 44c | 675.39$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.22 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Patriots | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bengals | 47c | 447.75$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.68 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Patriots | 54c | 439.95$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.65 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed Patriots | 57c | 364.84$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…01a1backed Patriots | 56c | 356.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Patriots | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Patriots | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bengals | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Patriots | 52c | 274.58$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…aecabacked Patriots | 52c | 270$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Patriots | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bengals | 48c | 255.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.48 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bengals | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bengals | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 50c | 236$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Bengals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Patriots | 56c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Patriots | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Patriots | 60c | 165.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bengals | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Patriots | 52c | 124$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Patriots | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Patriots | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Patriots | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Patriots | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Patriots | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Bengals | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…452ebacked Patriots | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Patriots | 46c | 77.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Patriots | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Bengals | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Patriots | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Patriots | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Bengals | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Patriots | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Patriots | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Patriots | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…fba2backed Patriots | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Patriots | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Bengals | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Patriots | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Patriots | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bengals | 50c | 23.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…74f0backed Patriots | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)this page
- Patriots vs. BengalsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Patriots (-8.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.