NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd15343f642670cac95f78f92b0a7208a32d9d26866779bf3939b999725d5694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Patriots | 61c | 37,946$23,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,845.1 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 39c | 24,588$9,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,619.48 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bengals | 39c | 9,720$3,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,766.58 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bengals | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Patriots | 60c | 1,291$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.94 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 40c | 1,245$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bengals | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Patriots | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked Patriots | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bengals | 44c | 335.46$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bengals | 42c | 280.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bengals | 41c | 182$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Patriots | 59c | 168.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Patriots | 60c | 168$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b85…f739backed Patriots | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Patriots | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…bf3bbacked Patriots | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Patriots | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Patriots | 52c | 138.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Patriots | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Patriots | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Patriots | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bengals | 49c | 84.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Patriots | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bengals | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Patriots | 51c | 67.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Patriots | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Patriots | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…4656backed Patriots | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…82e5backed Patriots | 51c | 39.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Patriots | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…0f1bbacked Patriots | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Patriots | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Bengals | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Patriots | 61c | 25.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Patriots | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)this page
- Patriots vs. BengalsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Patriots (-8.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.