TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Patriots (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bengalsof Patriots, Bengals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$296,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9158…fa7bbacked Bengals52c106,091$55,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,923.5911445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Patriots48c87,332$41,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,919.495855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Patriots48c70,040$33,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,619.1686547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bengals52c41,993$21,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,156.5231240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bengals52c21,143$10,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,151.076764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Patriots48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bengals52c18,631$9,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,942.8944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Patriots49c13,955$6,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,839.7247348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bengals52c13,000$6,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,24011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Patriots48c11,666$5,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,577.341,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Patriots48c11,458$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bengals51c9,930$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,859.8127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Bengals53c9,446$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,446.262564%16 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Patriots48c8,157$3,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,915.22552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Bengals52c7,692$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,692.161450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Patriots48c7,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36018156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Bengals51c6,923$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,373.087626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bengals52c5,555$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.424056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Patriots49c4,654$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.6747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bengals52c4,231$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.6954451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Patriots49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.9951352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bengals53c3,055$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.758551.8%44 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Bengals51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.1814252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Patriots48c2,501$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.4831450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bengals52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Bengals52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20016832.1%54 W · 114 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Patriots48c2,340$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.335756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Bengals49c2,307$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.6217348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Bengals51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.8914035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Patriots49c1,867$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.3234349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Patriots54c1,840$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.219436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Bengals51c1,600$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78415044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Patriots49c1,429$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70012343.1%53 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bengals52c1,320$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.5464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bengals57c1,260$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.7668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Patriots46c1,187$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.027143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Patriots49c1,100$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53423647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Patriots47c1,063$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.616050%30 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Patriots48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Patriots49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Bengals51c1,020$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.526233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Patriots47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Patriots48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48026648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bengals53c923.38$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.9953348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Patriots49c920.44$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.221,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Patriots48c919.25$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.2414154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Bengals53c800$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37611759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Bengals52c769.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2316346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bengals49c678.65$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.5473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Patriots47c635$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7731543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Patriots28c610$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1693724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcde5…32b5backed Patriots48c505$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bengals52c503.11$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.0375852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Patriots48c499.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24018744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Patriots49c410$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.912151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Patriots50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x741c…73f3backed Bengals51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Bengals52c390$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.213641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c77…6282backed Bengals53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.363435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ff…40b4backed Patriots48c370$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.581145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Patriots44c322.82$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.484146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Patriots49c314.29$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Patriots48c302.65$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2883447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Patriots53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15923447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Bengals52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14416139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Patriots51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15320650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Patriots31c290$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Patriots53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.513448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Patriots49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.511545.2%52 W · 63 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Bengals57c234.36$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7919459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Patriots43c220.92$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9519651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ed…cfa6backed Patriots49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012250%61 W · 61 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Bengals50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10019948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bengals52c195$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.655345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9844…5e6cbacked Patriots49c189$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.614546.7%21 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Bengals53c188.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.753847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked Patriots48c167.08$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.82560%15 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe176…58e4backed Patriots49c161.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bengals49c161$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0153253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Patriots49c142.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked Patriots48c137.5$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bengals51c135.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6341450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26be…d699backed Patriots48c129.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.322729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bengals49c125.49$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9935648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Patriots51c118.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b0…94ebbacked Bengals52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.384660.9%28 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Bengals42c104$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.928151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Patriots50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020949.8%104 W · 105 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd547…5ed7backed Bengals53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Patriots49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498047.5%38 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…1df2backed Bengals49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Patriots48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4865048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81dd…90f6backed Bengals52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Patriots48c94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.885541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe761…cdb1backed Patriots48c84.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c1…012cbacked Bengals52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.86753.7%36 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Patriots48c54.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1636341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Bengals50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2529751.5%153 W · 144 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Patriots48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244837.5%18 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.