TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$762,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$769,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $762,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Flyers52c514,580$267,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267,581.6256152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Maple Leafs48c500,000$240,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260,00010840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Flyers53c77,006$40,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,813.1810753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Maple Leafs47c27,154$12,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,391.7251452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Flyers52c14,603$7,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,593.3821850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Maple Leafs48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9828353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Maple Leafs48c9,406$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,906.58247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Flyers52c9,377$4,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,841.951,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs47c8,526$4,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,522.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Maple Leafs44c8,422$3,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,706.561748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Flyers76c8,285$6,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,290.871,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Flyers52c8,081$4,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,202.3147951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs48c7,000$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,67060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Maple Leafs48c6,914$3,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,595.286653%35 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs47c6,495$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.351,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Maple Leafs30c6,412$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,474.1638738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Maple Leafs47c6,400$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,39215749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Flyers54c5,926$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs46c5,293$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.311,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Flyers53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Maple Leafs28c4,962$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,571.6432744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Maple Leafs47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1201233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Flyers2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef1…3713backed Flyers53c3,687$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.721442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs29c3,384$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.32,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers79c3,240$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.7189636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Maple Leafs48c2,952$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.628251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Maple Leafs24c2,950$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,24233345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Flyers79c2,534$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004778.7%37 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6af9…1d6ebacked Flyers56c2,511$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Maple Leafs48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Maple Leafs47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3258134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Flyers1c2,444$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.447450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Maple Leafs46c2,222$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.8810850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flyers54c2,200$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18883652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Flyers52c2,079$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.2422852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Maple Leafs47c2,069$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.5497651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs46c2,049$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.372,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9978…e753backed Flyers53c1,900$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-57.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Maple Leafs26c1,895$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.9970249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf0…fa27backed Maple Leafs47c1,700$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9012065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs46c1,695$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.781,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs47c1,547$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.281,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs49c1,540$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.444551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Maple Leafs47c1,488$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.6461953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ea…f2dabacked Flyers53c1,455$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.55536.4%20 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Maple Leafs48c1,400$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72824845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Maple Leafs47c1,268$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.031752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Maple Leafs47c1,166$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.1485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Maple Leafs28c1,006$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.5434538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Flyers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Maple Leafs47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Flyers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Flyers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52051044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Maple Leafs47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5307338.4%28 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Maple Leafs47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53016246.9%76 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Flyers53c967.79$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.931,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Maple Leafs47c959.06$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.319851.5%102 W · 96 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Flyers3c950$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271076.5%7 W · 100 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Maple Leafs22c910.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.451136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Maple Leafs10c909.82$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.0543742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa70b…7a8abacked Maple Leafs47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.068046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Flyers15c833$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9529412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Flyers54c740.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40041757.3%239 W · 178 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961d…953dbacked Flyers54c710$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Maple Leafs47c699.99$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.9945749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Maple Leafs48c691.71$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.8362249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff0…0178backed Maple Leafs47c680$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Maple Leafs40c664$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.092,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9764…c40cbacked Maple Leafs47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.38547.1%40 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78c4…3203backed Maple Leafs47c630$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.91154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Maple Leafs28c629.64$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.951,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Maple Leafs48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32520951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Flyers74c621.04$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.5739344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Flyers53c600.66$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.3512152.1%63 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Maple Leafs47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31810056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e2…787cbacked Flyers54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3241233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed Maple Leafs47c572.34$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs41c555.65$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.8895049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Flyers53c555$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3168…ea4abacked Flyers71c545.07$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.052138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x816e…abe1backed Maple Leafs47c531.91$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.912259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs47c529.72$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.7560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed Maple Leafs24c528$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.289642.7%41 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs47c502.13$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.132,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Maple Leafs47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26519645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Maple Leafs47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2654637%17 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Flyers53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Maple Leafs48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x092d…d44cbacked Flyers63c490.54$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.952470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe702…d88cbacked Maple Leafs28c484.84$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.391250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3228…afbbbacked Maple Leafs47c468.09$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.091450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Maple Leafs24c459$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.8412941.9%54 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers56c446$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.951,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Maple Leafs31c443.15$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1520145.8%92 W · 109 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Maple Leafs46c430.4$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.4210450%52 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…5c8dbacked Maple Leafs47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Maple Leafs24c423.81$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7112826.6%34 W · 94 L-12.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Maple Leafs48c419.17$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9716750.9%85 W · 82 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Maple Leafs24c416.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.6755446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.