NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d317f9c0934e7a669d9b0f198837e694986ef994f4f49a5b4108b451e208de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 57c | 1,755$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.34 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 1,679$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.42 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.93 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 1,191$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.14 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 718.2$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.38 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 57c | 458.63$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.42 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 57c | 293.6$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.35 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 54c | 291$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 43c | 266.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 247.75$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 195.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…0a55backed Over | 54c | 100.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 43c | 67.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -9.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…7572backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 57c | 48.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 33.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…17b2backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 26.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…e09ebacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. FlyersMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.