NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbef5dfddac38daecec8aa80ac348844a00726f3f3ac47180814c1a291fd0d249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 46c | 9,000$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,139.99 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 54c | 5,901$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.09 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 1,709$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.91 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 952.51$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.16 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Over | 45c | 555$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 204.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 62c | 191$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 29c | 180$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 55c | 119$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Under | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 54c | 52.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 55c | 47.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 44.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. FlyersMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.