NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8046b9cda4d99a1c8ca28c1ecdc632eff5bb50089d86bd4f132f156ed92b74b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Flyers, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc635…4b6abacked Flyers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…43eabacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 4,994$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 931.98$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.23 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 39c | 519.75$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Flyers | 32c | 413.91$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.45 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…c9b0backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 369.25$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Flyers | 32c | 330$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 266.05$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Flyers | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 177.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers | 30c | 126.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Flyers | 32c | 109.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Flyers | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 61.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Flyers | 29c | 51.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Flyers | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flyers | 32c | 40.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. FlyersMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.