Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6240cd4c4b1b1322e88600654aa222e91659964042e65f3a5d13fc5d527b3e20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 2,970$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 46c | 2,824$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.46 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 59c | 2,108$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.06 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 41c | 1,861$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.52 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…137ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,355$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 1,095$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.98 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 972.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.86 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 5c | 921.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.49 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 31c | 732.03$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.01 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 591.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…b356backed Yes | 3c | 581.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.01 | 178 | 18.5%33 W · 145 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 3c | 545.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…c978backed No | 5c | 538.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 92 | 13%12 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 3c | 524.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.85 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 18c | 519.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.48 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 5c | 501.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.22 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…e1f2backed Yes | 4c | 488.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,602.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 413.8$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 390.39$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.37 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 370.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.49 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f83…0e8dbacked Yes | 14c | 343.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…965dbacked Yes | 5c | 332.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,736.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 68c | 330.89$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…138cbacked No | 4c | 316.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 45c | 315.77$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 36c | 300.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Yes | 10c | 280.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 274.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 74c | 233.52$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 41c | 225.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 220.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 59c | 216.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0069…2f92backed Yes | 21c | 199.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +366.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bed…00d7backed No | 73c | 188.24$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…39dfbacked Yes | 20c | 180$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +407.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…c312backed No | 78c | 172$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 37c | 164.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…cf3ebacked Yes | 35c | 154.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 151.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 64c | 150.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 12c | 146.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 48c | 138.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…f872backed No | 73c | 136.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…62fbbacked Yes | 64c | 124.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Yes | 26c | 108.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 106.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 40c | 103.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 102.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 51c | 102.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…09afbacked Yes | 10c | 100.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 21c | 92.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 37c | 90.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 105 | 14.3%15 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa118…6992backed No | 80c | 83.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Yes | 72c | 81.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes | 66c | 79.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…2a63backed Yes | 36c | 76.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…03efbacked No | 80c | 68.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 66c | 62.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…6301backed No | 80c | 58.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 74c | 54.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -7.3wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 47c | 45.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 43.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 74c | 39.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 442 | 27.4%121 W · 321 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…9c6ebacked No | 66c | 27.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Yes | 63c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 58c | 18.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.