TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,155 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c741.79$236 inLost-$235.972,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed No63c432.49$274 inWon+$158.0765623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes7c272.1$19 inLost-$19.0563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2434…05eabacked Yes7c272.1$19 inLost-$19.054325.6%11 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+188.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c249.86$95 inLost-$94.9537830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c210$45 inLost-$44.642628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5d8…415cbacked No62c192.4$119 inWon+$73.118565.9%56 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes9c184.65$17 inLost-$16.847915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes17c147.42$25 inLost-$24.5159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes32c147.11$47 inLost-$46.793756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes38c106.57$40 inLost-$40.444227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes25c105$26 inLost-$26.36616.7%11 W · 55 L-14.0wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-53.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c101.84$21 inLost-$20.7851845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes39c100$39 inLost-$3932016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcb…7eccbacked No79c84.78$67 inWon+$17.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ed…d9b5backed Yes29c79.91$23 inLost-$22.8350%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f0…1d60backed Yes34c74.12$25 inLost-$25.25416.7%9 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes38c72.87$28 inLost-$27.874560%27 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No61c66.04$40 inWon+$25.7633670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes30c62.05$19 inLost-$18.6227920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes25c53.8$13 inLost-$13.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes37c50$19 inLost-$18.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe236…cfcdbacked Yes38c50$19 inLost-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No65c43.6$28 inWon+$15.327820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes39c37.56$15 inLost-$14.659724.7%24 W · 73 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfe…4776backed No68c28.47$19 inWon+$9.112373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No65c27.04$18 inWon+$9.53971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.