Middle East · resolved market
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x282e1e7ae271cd848896e37834afb93ff5ca81ef374882868f91a85b17b47801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6abc…f38ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,270$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 19c | 1,054$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,050$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…8717backed No | 71c | 1,000$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes | 28c | 990.85$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 28c | 720$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c72bbacked Yes | 21c | 700.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 79c | 699.72$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 13c | 681$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 19c | 647$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Yes | 19c | 618$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 556.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 13c | 488.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 73c | 461$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 79c | 413.61$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021e…1e56backed Yes | 13c | 378.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 28c | 320$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 13c | 313$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ba…ee13backed Yes | 20c | 310$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked Yes | 12c | 298.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…c987backed Yes | 35c | 284.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes | 18c | 284.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 41c | 250.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…34b8backed Yes | 10c | 244.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 77c | 229.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 216$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…7b06backed Yes | 28c | 213.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 12c | 200.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…27b3backed Yes | 8c | 198.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 19c | 173$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 15c | 172.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…0d68backed Yes | 45c | 146.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 137.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 17c | 130.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 28c | 109.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 107.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 13c | 104.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…c29cbacked Yes | 14c | 103.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 14c | 100.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 71c | 96.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…7213backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…3f31backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 88.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 88.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…fc71backed Yes | 14c | 84.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cd…4694backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 79.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 73.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ded9backed Yes | 29c | 69.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…aa32backed Yes | 18c | 66.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9e…6da8backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 24c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…a467backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…2326backed Yes | 45c | 58.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa103…dab0backed Yes | 20c | 56.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked No | 74c | 33.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 28.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…bfc0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…e6f7backed Yes | 46c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bf…49c2backed No | 68c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 70c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…56a1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 70c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.