Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b93f0805c376e50a6a618aee45728fe3db957527ca20e02877caa0135bdb950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 896.95$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 73c | 427.53$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.79 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 38c | 257.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.91 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 64c | 245.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 66c | 205.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 203.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 188.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed Yes | 77c | 165.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 38c | 164.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 48c | 126.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 126.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 123.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 104.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 67c | 96.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 94.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 85.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 45c | 77.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 35c | 73.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 70.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 36c | 68.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 30c | 68.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 67.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 35c | 65.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 64.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 33c | 59.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 33c | 56.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 31c | 51.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 50.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 44c | 49.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 43.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 42.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 35c | 40.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 36.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 58c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 70c | 33.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 31c | 32.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 35c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 71c | 29.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 46c | 24.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 64c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 76c | 23.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 22.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 59c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 51c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 64c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…cde1backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 67c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 77c | 15.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 66c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 69c | 14.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.