Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c931a02b901775cc6a2765e44216788e9b55e75deda9b2ee8d534878327525b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 219.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 152.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 29c | 149.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 68c | 121.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 120.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 22c | 94.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 93.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 67.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 80c | 63.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 68c | 62.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 62.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 56.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…4c54backed No | 64c | 55.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 55.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 49.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbb…9d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 48.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 43c | 43.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 37c | 38.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 37.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 28c | 37.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 74c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked No | 73c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.