Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ad9de870d83a90f678416884100663e8676ba9d98511b786bf565d4a4b211b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 65c | 4,765$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.58 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 32c | 1,941$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.85 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 37c | 1,100$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…d984backed Up | 24c | 1,010$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 24c | 671.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 27c | 561.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.53 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…e9a5backed Up | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 19c | 498$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Up | 31c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 25c | 370$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 30c | 348.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 16c | 336.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Up | 21c | 315.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…7224backed Down | 73c | 260$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…1dbcbacked Up | 33c | 250$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Up | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2505…7301backed Up | 25c | 189.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Up | 10c | 178.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 44c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…0325backed Up | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Up | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…48a8backed Up | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Down | 80c | 70.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Up | 20c | 67.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…3f9cbacked Up | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Down | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Up | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc309…513dbacked Up | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Up | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…1884backed Up | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…03afbacked Up | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed Up | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…078cbacked Up | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…6713backed Up | 23c | 48.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…624abacked Up | 22c | 46.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2270…b8d2backed Up | 25c | 41.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…cebdbacked Down | 70c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…f104backed Down | 77c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.