TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1775…85b0backed Yes77c3,104$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.4236648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed No6c2,695$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6412932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No23c2,481$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.6886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes79c2,416$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.561450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No11c2,246$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6837533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes70c2,123$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.3433018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No25c1,649$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.492,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e84…659dbacked No27c1,281$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.673473.5%25 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes73c1,121$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.725,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No9c1,117$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.161,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No15c1,110$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0188628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf229…d5f7backed Yes78c908.49$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.883928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No16c877.44$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2363656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes69c854.57$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.237524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No26c795.52$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b3…dc40backed No22c757.36$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.354245.2%19 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No16c714.21$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No13c688.83$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.163622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed Yes64c564.13$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.049054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes75c556.07$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.6325362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e43…2e9cbacked No11c555.02$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.342458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes73c533.14$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.945152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes53c524$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.614926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed No24c481$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.433221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x713b…c916backed Yes79c480.7$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.631931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c442.94$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.157,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7f1f…237cbacked Yes77c408.84$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed No20c393.72$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.317518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed No9c327.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6213514.8%20 W · 115 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes66c325.52$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5921429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No16c305$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.838138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes78c300.73$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.064,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No20c299.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes69c299.31$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.791040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes69c280.24$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4124029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed No34c273.29$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.424257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes64c272.3$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No23c264.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7118530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked No17c262.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.875756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No21c257.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1510617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes70c255.8$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes59c252.65$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4819338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x378a…a773backed No33c247.5$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No32c243.35$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed No13c242.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7216116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No45c223.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.816456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9193…a796backed Yes55c222.39$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x982e…f467backed No15c219.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.931520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ca…c4f0backed No17c219.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed No13c209.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9412226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12c8…8cf5backed Yes75c200.57$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.44366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No18c198.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.842,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed Yes66c196.97$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9710924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No24c193.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.210247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed No25c192.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6511122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No23c189.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d7…3ed2backed No12c185.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No36c184.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4915136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No18c168.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6728954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c13…31a3backed Yes74c166$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.164129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed No20c164.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4611259.8%67 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ad…c072backed Yes71c160.46$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.922536%9 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3a…0d98backed Yes64c150.89$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae4f…cde1backed No34c140.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.932152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes79c137.68$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.021650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed Yes79c136.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.411872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes56c136.81$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.712,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed No27c136.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.941346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No22c132.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8512365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No8c129$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6572624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed No14c122.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.742846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b4…847ebacked Yes75c118.38$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes77c114.62$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.586065%39 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes63c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.21,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes67c108.73$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.77913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes69c108.04$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8718327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7598…b1c2backed Yes64c107.62$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No26c105.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.968138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes66c102.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.836610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6034918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3012735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa479…ef6bbacked No50c99.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92611.5%3 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No20c97.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5716335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee8…76bebacked Yes74c97.4$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.321070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No33c95.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7344646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes53c93.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.076137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c89.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes80c86.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.614062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No29c85.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.172,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No37c80.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.512,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…9d0abacked Yes65c76.41$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.04450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x715e…ee36backed No34c74.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.312832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed No24c74.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.945950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes70c74.28$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.289162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ea1…4b4dbacked No42c73.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No36c71.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.