TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,546 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes1c10,396$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4223633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes3c6,401$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6912932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x297c…0f89backed Yes1c4,902$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.45195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes20c3,468$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.5786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes21c1,153$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes1c1,136$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8534651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7213…0f5bbacked Yes2c931.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes7c824.48$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1936648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes14c711.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4988628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes5c684.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes7c669.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.416724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No71c651.79$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.024339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes10c560.97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.451,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c518$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.242,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c451.53$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.877,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes11c414.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2356721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes14c399.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes11c394.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4734918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes34c393.96$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a33…308bbacked Yes20c388.72$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.452934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes20c365.43$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4418530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes11c349.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes9c346.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0118668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes17c330.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5524029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes10c329.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes11c318.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7321429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ca…c4f0backed Yes9c310.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes5c295.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.872572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes17c271.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.862,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes29c253.16$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.62142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes13c249.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.556118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes10c244.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes4c240.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.672,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed Yes11c192.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.617518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes13c188.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.181,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes11c185.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.137534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c9…c500backed Yes11c182.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.045437%20 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes15c182.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.691,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes16c175.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1512226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes8c173.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes17c170.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.853622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c166.25$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes15c161.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.783221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd4…ed07backed Yes9c152$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.891353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3862…aa32backed Yes12c144.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.78875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes12c138.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.579028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes16c131.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.764233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c121$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes19c112.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.133836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes10c108.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.822944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes10c105.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.536317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes13c102.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3419338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes17c99.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.949747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…9aeebacked Yes29c99.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.781435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes16c99.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.877143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes19c95.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.462138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes28c88.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.67939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes15c88.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2116116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73c1…ad0ebacked Yes35c80.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-11.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No67c77.96$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.913453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes18c73.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.885731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes14c73.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.248531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes16c71.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.483,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes14c71.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes22c67.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No66c61.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7620958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.478663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea1…4b4dbacked Yes23c50.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed No70c48.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.45451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No46c43.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4721848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1452155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1843…affabacked Yes54c34.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.521637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes32c32.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4113424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a48…3e67backed No77c29.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.744100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No68c28.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2137533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No74c24.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3311652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed No44c22.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.864535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No64c22.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No75c19.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No64c16.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.023271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.