TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,146
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,146 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb990…947cbacked No2c1,013$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.261118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick7cpaid+318.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes71c835.54$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c574.88$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No15c572.36$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2464021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No48c536.35$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.5911925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb977…b5e2backed Yes67c432.38$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.822030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-44.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No34c384.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7763656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No40c350.26$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.555,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c317.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c248.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.831,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fb…5fb7backed No53c220.02$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.736936.2%25 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes47c215.57$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bd…25c9backed Yes48c208.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.25540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes41c199$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes43c198.95$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.441,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes59c196.42$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.392835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e5…63d3backed Yes53c183.94$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.612045%9 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes39c183.8$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.049626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No44c170.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.451650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b153backed No32c169.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.114864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No31c167.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.142638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes69c166.91$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2119123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes67c162.18$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.93644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes63c161.03$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.431,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes60c150.04$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.365,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa061…2c51backed No53c148.64$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.531225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-40.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No58c146.15$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.229054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes49c145.41$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No46c143.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes67c141.35$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5316651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2493…8c5ebacked Yes57c134.75$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.211428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes48c133.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6811038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes73c130.74$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No68c128.94$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0857038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe08a…fafebacked Yes60c128.84$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes58c127.48$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.795731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c124.93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes49c119.26$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.410642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes75c118.22$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba60…8d09backed Yes55c117.03$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.231546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes59c115.02$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3523738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed Yes51c113.35$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.961866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe708…4e48backed Yes46c102.39$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No53c102.17$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9716159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7368…6e6dbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes35c99.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes47c99.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.41330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes46c99.37$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6619541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc06…0db6backed Yes55c98.63$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.07933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes49c98.32$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.041,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes61c96.86$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No47c96.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Yes55c96.3$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.332864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No52c95.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No53c95.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6620353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No54c92.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c87.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes56c85.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No59c84.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5816548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No17c82.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.757946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd760…5b2abacked Yes69c78.37$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes63c76.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7811362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No27c74.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes49c72.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No56c71.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1337533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb2c…d68fbacked No54c70.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.151323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x68cf…7ddfbacked Yes55c69.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.24560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes54c65.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes49c65.25$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0610163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No60c65.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9956265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes65c63.47$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9918845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No24c62.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.996911.6%8 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c59.28$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No53c59.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.419353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c58.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.863,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes42c58.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6826434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b56…724fbacked Yes50c57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5457…2ba9backed Yes45c56.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced6…3f6dbacked No45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257912.7%10 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab14…e786backed Yes36c55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes48c53.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.565628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes49c51.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No49c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9920942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes56c50.63$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1611249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c7…0577backed Yes58c50.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1da…7bfbbacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes58c49.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1819160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes56c49.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8239541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c48.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.512,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2e…95f1backed Yes43c48.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.35771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+76.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes58c48.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4945238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes45c47.8$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes42c47.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6111938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c46.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes62c46.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8211044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes48c46.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.239535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.