TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05ac…6d71backed No78c2,406$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.691560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes21c1,872$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes3c1,408$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.225344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb977…b5e2backed Yes26c705.38$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.252030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-44.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes28c641.88$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7333139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes18c594.69$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.081,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c583.56$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.251,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb1…7318backed Yes13c580$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.41414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c555.33$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.377,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes45c524.39$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.262729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes31c451.51$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes21c448.88$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes17c371.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bd…25c9backed Yes25c351.51$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No79c349.48$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1663656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes9c330$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes10c327.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.488417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c317.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.442,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes33c284.84$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.278127.2%22 W · 59 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed No80c282.85$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.531330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes22c277.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.854,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked No78c272.07$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.053164.5%20 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c271.27$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c216.68$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No79c214.46$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5919148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes26c212.04$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.572835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed No79c199.44$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.885846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c198.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.815,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed No73c189.47$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.013839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92ba…cf4dbacked No65c179.55$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.11662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes25c177.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.511038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c165.72$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.992,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed No75c156.88$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.223324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No72c151.12$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.991,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No60c150.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.042638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198a…2080backed Yes19c150.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.847121.1%15 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7327…64f4backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes10c149.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes14c149.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes27c147.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.471,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes29c143.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8118534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c133.93$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.441,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No65c132.74$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8557038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c130.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c127.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes21c127.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.222,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes26c115.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.652832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes30c110.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.845628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes24c102.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5994919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes19c101.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes31c96.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes20c93.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3959440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes14c91.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.661,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4211…b21cbacked No74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes29c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.137942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes21c89.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.35731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c88.36$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.862,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed Yes37c87.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.911866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes32c86.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe546…e186backed Yes27c83.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…1203backed No58c82.54$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c13…31a3backed Yes30c81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No71c77.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6216159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c76.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No80c72.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes24c71.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2353437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c70.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes27c69.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.539344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No74c66.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes24c65.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x231a…7d04backed Yes29c63.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0250%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb26d…039fbacked Yes22c62.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.831540%6 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes17c62.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.416651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafe0…1b89backed Yes21c61.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.161560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes18c58.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes27c56.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3618668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3ce3…ff2abacked No79c55.71$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.65366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No72c54.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.433567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc8…1725backed Yes37c51.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…c01bbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f56…a97bbacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.55834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes38c48.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4841733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No70c48.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes22c48.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c47.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes26c47.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.435111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes22c46.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0725239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301f…2ddfbacked No80c46.06$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.211668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e18…5dcabacked Yes35c44.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c43.28$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.562,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c43.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.442,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes29c42.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c42.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.649,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No71c41.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes28c41.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5314062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes26c40.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7619059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.