Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91ae75e7940548a56c0d3f57b15835613e8a8269d020414a8f208c9d9d6fd39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 1c | 2,509$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,895$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 1,001$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 5c | 735.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 18c | 718.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 18c | 658.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 345.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 252.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 13c | 241.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 223.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 18c | 223.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 11c | 216.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…25c9backed Yes | 16c | 210.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 21c | 194.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 11c | 179.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 163.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 22c | 157.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 152.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 20c | 140.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 132.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 129.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 18c | 128.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 11c | 128.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 24c | 125.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…58fbbacked Yes | 19c | 119.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 115.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 12c | 108.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 18c | 107.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 15c | 104.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 25c | 100.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 100.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…c01bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…b975backed Yes | 18c | 99.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +91%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 99.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 24c | 98.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes | 19c | 97.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 24c | 96.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 28c | 95.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes | 25c | 91.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 88.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 16c | 76.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 15c | 75.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 63.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 23c | 56.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 22c | 55.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 21c | 53.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95c1…ed1abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 73c | 47.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 47.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 75c | 37.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 76c | 34.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…ed95backed No | 79c | 24.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 80c | 22.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 16.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.