TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8d84…cf8ebacked Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1879…b287backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes22c1,975$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.0610120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed Yes4c1,098$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.233557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes39c770.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes55c765.92$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4212729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes48c759.99$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes58c703.13$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.558016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked Yes56c640.44$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.052227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes43c595.29$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.596,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes49c502.62$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb082…30e0backed Yes60c496.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No50c496.24$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes58c452.63$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.7616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes50c401.66$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.661,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes44c400.7$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes67c398.73$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2691464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No48c389.63$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No67c368.96$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No47c357.78$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.7115759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3de5…00ccbacked No37c353.87$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.871464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No55c339.3$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.3158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes48c320.73$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.681,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes53c286.8$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5811249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c283.26$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed No66c251.8$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.545440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c246.79$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.724,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes50c227.86$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.011,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…108dbacked Yes50c227.4$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.121457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No63c222.25$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.911,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No45c221.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.551,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes60c218.78$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.741,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes45c216.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.013644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3333450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes41c207.55$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes46c203.38$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.944623.9%11 W · 35 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.841,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8411436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes51c187.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5847136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes55c181.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c176.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.235,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9a…e36abacked No50c174$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x646f…2071backed No48c171$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+69.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes66c170$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.81540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c168.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.233,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes47c164.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes39c163.07$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.934617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1250…1783backed No47c160$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c153.67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.572,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes33c150.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.413,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes65c150$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9717338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked No68c148.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.042445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No51c147.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7115339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes62c147.36$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.732147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa07…49f2backed Yes50c144.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes63c142.62$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1911161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb65…90acbacked No48c142$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1b…a999backed No45c138.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.532152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c138.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.551,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9394…e78cbacked Yes51c132.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.091450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c128.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2584…030abacked Yes41c121.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes45c119.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8819541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes67c119.91$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5612932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No64c119.85$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No45c115.82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No47c112.35$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.731,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No72c107.84$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.236057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes54c105$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.635465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes52c103.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5141046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46d0…b129backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No46c99.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5694…6052backed Yes62c99.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes27c98.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0422028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes31c96.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.328111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes53c94.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes55c93.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.091662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbb…2faabacked Yes33c91.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes47c90.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.81,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3efd…b982backed No50c87.88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.322725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed No35c86.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.116832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked No49c85.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.916913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes47c84.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.918250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes50c82.28$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No34c81.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8411925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes29c80.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.028124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x791e…0c24backed No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c78.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes23c78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9459818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes53c75.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5864…e473backed Yes55c75.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes62c75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4337644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.