TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,431 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a7e…35b7backed Yes38c2,705$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66f…ac00backed Yes38c2,480$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef08…05f5backed Yes38c2,473$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83f5…fa6ebacked No62c1,655$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98e…521ebacked No62c1,650$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x700e…5367backed No62c1,648$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed Yes32c1,563$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.435440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6614…8724backed No62c1,355$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fa…af53backed No62c1,350$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes65c960.64$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.3531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c786.99$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.566,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c614.21$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.681,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes40c579.39$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.7910120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No7c452.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7232818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No68c429$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes38c393.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.2833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No55c391.4$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c376.41$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.897,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes68c371.73$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4148331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes48c362.22$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.6595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes33c351.97$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.861,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes27c343.72$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9212033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes54c320.35$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes40c308.87$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1841,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes48c287.98$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.0731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c286.77$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c275.02$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed No6c271.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.075950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb082…30e0backed Yes69c265.3$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.062254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No28c244.95$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9759021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes32c227.89$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.49626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c211.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes39c205.53$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.559346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes52c204.42$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2311436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes35c199.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2512…9030backed Yes47c197.48$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.297045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c197.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.71,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No57c183.45$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c178.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No54c167.19$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.868551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes50c162.98$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.831,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a80…7b99backed Yes41c159$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No65c153.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes29c152.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7220534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2df6…7c15backed Yes41c152$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9352245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes56c149.86$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8717338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No65c149.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.451,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes35c146$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.911038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No55c145.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.13557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No71c140.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdda3…34bdbacked Yes36c137.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.671233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c137.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.641,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c136.22$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.073,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6486…687abacked Yes39c129$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes54c125$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c122.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No33c121.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.182,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes31c120$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.371540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No57c100.25$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6789544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7041046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7016234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.071,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes64c99.38$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0716651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes33c90$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.455641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdef0…9c46backed Yes33c86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.288038.8%31 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No66c85.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2930859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No62c83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8615339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes34c82.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.532352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes32c78.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5143525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4192…278ebacked No69c76.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes36c76.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8918534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes35c76.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.96719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c75.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9394…e78cbacked Yes28c74.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.341450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No30c73.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.581,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No60c72.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.811,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes49c69.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c69.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes30c69.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3722028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbc…7227backed No62c69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes29c68.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.148861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes33c67.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6453437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes37c67.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5341733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No67c65.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.733,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes47c64.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No53c63.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No66c62.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes30c61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.759818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c59.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e97…4828backed Yes28c59.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.854221.4%9 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5aa…f709backed No59c58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95fe…8c71backed No67c57.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.163773%27 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes36c54.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.892846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No66c52.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes67c51.07$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.033534.3%12 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes44c50.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes29c50.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.642317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.