Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac715d909a7181fe933079fb3a4d6d05f98fcc1ad70037f30136f7ec86811264
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 18c | 1,775$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.61 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 61c | 1,121$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.2 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…22f0backed Yes | 36c | 1,042$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 16c | 957.13$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 69c | 710$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 31c | 710$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…dfd8backed No | 56c | 642.48$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +284.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 67c | 420$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 16c | 359.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 18c | 325$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 64c | 321$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 295.85$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 68c | 250$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 20c | 239.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…287dbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 185.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…bd0fbacked Yes | 23c | 171.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed Yes | 24c | 169$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 45c | 167.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 36c | 157.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 15c | 154.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 59c | 146.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.39per pick | 40cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…89cdbacked No | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 23c | 81.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 79.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 71.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 57c | 56.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…e909backed Yes | 44c | 55.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked No | 67c | 53.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…dc44backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…edb6backed Yes | 43c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 30c | 42.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…fa18backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…7f5fbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…071ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…e7e6backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 73c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d1…1e5abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…0eebbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of April 4?this page
- Will "SWIM - BTS" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of April 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.